Today's topics include the Fed's latest projections, understanding Fedspeak, fighting inflation during a banking crisis, the yield curve & recession, 0DTE options boom, evolution of capitalism, Yellen throws cold water on hopes for blanket FDIC guarantees, the legal battle over AT1 bonds, Goldman estimates household demand for stocks, and Coinbase receives Wells notice from SEC
Today's topics include markets still expect a 25 basis point hike today, keep an eye on the summary of economic projections, some perspective on Fed uncertainty, more on bank deposits seeking higher rates, JPMorgan is not overly concerned about treasury liquidity, BofA survey shows money managers' concern over systemic credit event, First Republic suitors might require government assurances, Dudley offers five fixes to banking mess, and existing home prices fall
The catalyst for a problem is often unanticipated. In the case of the latest banking crisis, the public's "discovery" of higher rates outside their bank accounts was one such catalyst. As deposits left banks for money market funds, banks were caught off guard. The adoption of mobile banking might have changed banking forever.
Today's topics include officials hint at further FDIC deposit insurance, can central banks have their cake and eat it too?, banks tap the FHLB for $304 billion, fixing a banking crisis, checking in on the consumer, who owned credit suisse's AT1 bonds?, quantifying FOMO, and leave no stone unturned
A replay of our March 23, 2023 conference call.
With only two days to go until the next FOMC meeting, traders are still not sure what to expect from the Fed. Since forward guidance began in 1994, there has not been a meeting with this much uncertainty so close to the meeting.
Today's topics include UBS/Credit Suisse/Swiss National Bank's busy weekend, the Fed's 'sorta' busy weekend, Buffett's busy weekend, tier 2 banks band together in asking for FDIC insurance, tier 2 banks' importance to the economy, a binary outcome for the banking industry, and talkin' about the banking crisis & crypto
The $300 billion surge in loans by the Fed to banks, increasing its balance sheet so much it reversed half of all quantitative tightening in the last year, is a worrisome signal that deposit flight from regional banks is in full bloom. If not reversed in the coming days/weeks, it will lead to a credit crunch that will impair the economy.