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What Will the Fed Do Next Week?
March 15, 2023
In this confusing environment, we believe the Fed will take its cue from the stock market in deciding what to do next week.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 15, 2023
Today's topics include talkin' about the banking crisis, the regulatory response to the banking crisis, the Fed is caught between a rock & a hard place, the bailout debate rages on, the pain continues for Credit Suisse, the debt ceiling, and Cramer must be using an alternate definition of 'soft landing'
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Cartoons
March 15, 2023
Media & Communications
Some thoughts on what the Fed WILL DO next week.
March 15, 2023
First see the charts below. This wild gyrating of the probabilities this close to a meeting is without precedent. NO ONE has a road map for this, including the Fed. So, what do they do next week? Let me offer some ideas. They are based on one assumption and one historical fact. ASSUMPTION: the Fed… Continue reading Some thoughts on what the Fed WILL DO next week.
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Inflation Watch – February Data in Line With Expectations
March 14, 2023
February's CPI data came in pretty much as expected. Next month will prove critical for lower year-over-year inflation. A high month-over-month number from March 2022 will roll off the yearly calculation, allowing for a more drastic drop in year-over-year inflation. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 14, 2023
Today's topics include rates gone mad, tier 1 banks rake in deposits, a system breaking down?, global central bank messaging, Federal Home Loan Bank raises capital, the Fed's accounting tricks, and a trade for persistent inflation
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Cartoons
March 14, 2023
A summary of Silicon Valley Bank? pic.twitter.com/VZTLQm9wOq — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 13, 2023
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 13, 2023
Today's topics include the Treasury/Fed/FDIC attempt to stop the bleeding, sizing Up SVB's failure, is this a bailout?, the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program, the UK finds a buyer for SVB' UK unit, so where does this leave the Fed's rate hike campaign?, the two-year note's wild ride, the return of the bond vigilantes, keep an eye on the other banks, the Fed is exposed to same rising rate problem as other banks, and the allure of renting
Newsclips
Cartoons
March 13, 2023
Media & Communications
The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days…
March 10, 2023
The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days (since Wednesday’s close). Only five other days in the last 40 years have seen a larger two-day moves. Oct 20, 1987 = the day after the largest stock market crash in history (-22%, Oct 19, 1987) Sept 14, 2001 = two days after the 9/11… Continue reading The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days…
Newsclips
Do Banks Need to Raise Deposit Rates?
March 10, 2023
Bank deposit rates have been too low relative to other higher-yielding options. That was not a problem until depositors began to move money out of the banking system for these higher-yielding instruments. The fix - raising deposit rates - would hinder profitability.