Euro Intelligence – Not as close to a deal on a comprehensive anti-crisis package as you might think Reuters has a background news story this morning, according to which negotiations for an anti-crisis package are not going well. Germany seems to have dug on its position, not to allow the EFSF to buy bonds. (We… Continue reading Europe
Tech Ticker – How “Big Short” Author Michael Lewis Got Duped By Wall Street Best-selling author Michael Lewis knows his way around Wall Street and the world of money. His first book, Liar’s Poker, chronicled his misadventures as a bond trader in the go-go 1980s. In Moneyball, he explored the way economic analysis is applied… Continue reading Michael Lewis On Wall Street
Bloomberg.com – Taleb Advises ‘First’ Avoid Treasuries, Then Dollar Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said the “first thing” investors should avoid is U.S. Treasuries and the second is the dollar. Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP whose 2007 bestselling book argued that history is littered with rare events that can’t be predicted… Continue reading Taleb’s Nowcasting Continues
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Today At 9:00 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast moderated by Jim Bianco. Please join us as we discuss inflation, commodity prices and earnings. Handout Click Here To Register Tomorrow we will post a replay of… Continue reading Are Inflation And Earnings A Problem?
The Financial Times – Lex: US muni smackdown One of several municipal analysts to ridicule Ms Whitney’s views wrote that she and Warren Buffett, who sees similar problems, are “not only dead wrong, but out of their league.” Are these financial folk heroes Chicken Littles? Or will muni mavens be proved as wrong as the… Continue reading Meredith Whitney’s Muni Call
The Financial Times – Lex: Cash piles At the turn of the year, the following idea was widespread: companies had copious cash piles, therefore they would soon distribute them to their shareholders, and this would boost their share price. Every step of this argument is now being proved wrong…Obviously, the “corporate cash piles” story had… Continue reading Cash On The Sidelines
The Financial Times – Wrong kind of inflation For equity investors the story is rather different. The right sort of inflation – caused by economic growth rather than “stagflation” – should allow corporate profits to keep up with prices, and dividends to rise even after inflation. Yet, it turns out that rising inflation is typically… Continue reading Is 4% The Magic Number For Inflation?
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment For years, we have read after every big securitization deal that this market is finally turning the corner. Does anyone remember the dozens of stories in 2009 praising the Federal Reserve’s TALF program for rescuing this market? For now, as the chart above show, securitization does not seem… Continue reading Securitization
The Wall Street Journal – Panel Floats Idea of U.S. ‘Century’ Bonds Wall Street is pushing the U.S. government to lock in low interest rates for the next few decades by issuing ultralong bonds that would mature in 40, 50 or even 100 years. It is an idea the government is considering, according to minutes… Continue reading Giving New Meaning To The Term “Long Bond”
The Financial Times – Finance: Shadow boxes “Risk is risk,” said Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs. “My concern is that … risk will move from the regulated, more transparent banking sector to a less regulated, more opaque sector.” Senior regulators are inclined to agree. Having spent the past three years first propping up banks… Continue reading Shadow Banks
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Gains Time on Debt Amid Spending Battle Citing better-than-expected tax receipts, the U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday extended its estimate of when the country hits the debt ceiling to somewhere between April 5 to May 31. The new deadline came as part of… Continue reading The Debt Ceiling