Wired Magazine – Possible Early Warning Sign for Market Crashes They say the telltale sign is a measure of co-movement, or the likelihood of stocks to move in the same direction. When a market is healthy, co-movement is low. But in the months and years before a crash, co-movement seems to grow. Regardless of whether… Continue reading More On Market Correlations
WNYT.com – Police: Angry Taco Bell customer fires at officers Police say a San Antonio Taco Bell customer enraged that the seven burritos he ordered had gone up in price fired an air gun at an employee and later fired an assault rifle at officers before barricading himself into a hotel room. San Antonio police… Continue reading Inflation Rage
None Today
The Big Picture – TARP + GSE: $257 Billion in the Red No, we are not profitable on the bailouts. TARP has $123B to go before breakeven, and the GSEs are $133B in the hole. All told, the Taxpayers have a long way to go before we are breakeven. That’s before we count lost income… Continue reading TARP
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Average cost of gasoline rises to $3.57 a gallon Cost continues to increase amid worries about Middle East stability Gasoline prices in the United States rose 6.65 cents per gallon over a two-week period, carried by the rise in crude oil prices stemming from the turmoil in… Continue reading Crude Oil And Retail Gas Prices
Bloomberg.com – Emergency Liquidity May Lead to Inflation, James Bianco Says Global financial efforts to bolster Japan’s economy after the March 11 earthquake may lead to inflation later in the year, said James Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC in Chicago. “All this liquidity, which is a virtue now, will be a vice later,” Bianco… Continue reading Inflation
The Wall Street Journal – Risk trade clouds long-term investors JUST when markets seemed headed back to normal, the “risk on/risk off” trade has come roaring back. Across financial markets, trading patterns more commonly seen in 2010 are returning. Stocks and the US dollar are consistently moving in opposite directions, as are stocks and Treasury… Continue reading Correlation In The Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Saudi regains crown of biggest crude producer As the FT’s commodities editor, I’m an around-the-clock, on-call help desk for the newsroom. A typical request from colleagues can run like this: which country is the largest producer of, say, oil, copper or coffee? (For the curious,… Continue reading Saudi Crude Oil Production
The New York Times – Unbreakable Bonds LATE last year a well-known financial analyst, Meredith Whitney, predicted that “50 to 100 sizable defaults” by state and local governments, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, were just around the corner. Since then that fear has produced a near-panic, with municipal bond markets down significantly and… Continue reading Could We Have A Bond Debacle?
<Click on picture for larger image> The New York Times – Floyd Norris: A Shift in the Balance of Debt Obligations FOR years, the American financial sector borrowed and borrowed. Its obligations rose even more rapidly than consumers’. Both sectors were far more aggressive borrowers than the federal government. Now that has reversed. The Federal… Continue reading Financial Sector Debt
USA Today – Maria Bartiromo interviews Meredith Whitney Meredith Whitney seems to be softening her concerns about a looming muni meltdown as politicians across the country address fiscal challenges more aggressively. Whitney, who now heads her own investment advisory firm, earned a following throughout Wall Street and the world during the financial crisis with her… Continue reading Meredith Whitney Discusses Munis
The Wall Street Journal –Raise Rates to Boost the Economy The chairman of the Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place—well, more like a house and a gas tank. How to escape? Mr. Bernanke, raise interest rates now.In order to the save bank balance sheets that he never cleared of toxic… Continue reading Should The Federal Reserve Raise Rates?