The Economist – The economy: Revising downwards Growth takes a knock—from nature, as much as anything THIS was supposed to be the year when a strong, durable American recovery finally kicked in. A volatile 2010 closed with a respectable fourth-quarter growth performance. The economy expanded at a 3.1% annualised rate from October to December, with… Continue reading The Economy Downshifts
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Comment Yesterday Jim Bianco and Howard Simons hosted a webcast on inflation expectations and debt. For those who missed it: The presentation materials can be found here The audio can be found here The webcast can be found here In the middle of our call we lost our internet connection which was part of a… Continue reading The Latest on Inflation And Debt
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Fleeing the Dollar Flood Members of the International Monetary Fund emerged from their huddle in Washington last weekend resolved to keep every option open to slow the flood of dollars pouring into their countries, including capital controls. That’s a dangerous game, given the need… Continue reading How Is A Weaker Dollar Affecting Countries Abroad?
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch – What happens when China stops buying bonds? If foreigners stopped buying U.S. federal debt, interest rates would go up and the dollar would fall, resulting in sharply higher prices for imports. It could be quite a jolt. It’s just another way in which Washington has gotten itself… Continue reading Foreign Holdings Of U.S. Debt
Bloomberg.com – Jonathan Weil: Geithner Downgrades His Own Credibility to Junk Fox Business reporter Peter Barnes began his televised interview with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner two days ago with this question: “Is there a risk that the United States could lose its AAA credit rating? Yes or no?” Geithner’s response: “No risk of that.” “No… Continue reading Geithner & The U.S. Downgrade
The Wall Street Journal – Government Mortgage Guarantees Are Unnecessary As Congress prepares to debate how to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, those in politics and real estate who support a government-backed housing finance system are predicting calamity. Institutional investors, they say, will not buy U.S. mortgages or mortgage-backed securities unless they are guaranteed… Continue reading Can The Mortgage Market Survive Without Government Guarantees?
ForexLive – S&P Text: State,Local ‘AAA’ Ratings Unchanged Post-US Outlook Revision On April 18. 2011, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised the outlook to negative from stable on its ‘AAA’ rating on the United States of America. Standard & Poor’s does not tie its U.S. state and local government ratings directly to the rating on… Continue reading Muni Ratings
The Wall Street Journal – How a U.S. Downgrade Would Play [A]t the risk of retreating into the realm of HG Wells and Terry Gilliam, I offer the following hypothesis for the European consequences of a U.S. debt downgrade, an act that would, if only symbolically, destroy the notion that there is any such thing… Continue reading What Would A U.S. Downgrade Mean For Europe?
The Financial Times – US Treasury to press on with $20bn AIG sale The US Treasury is pressing ahead with plans to sell $20bn of AIG shares next month even though a sharp fall in the insurer’s stock price will lead to smaller-than-expected profits for taxpayers, according to people familiar with the plans. Shares in AIG have fallen… Continue reading Treasury Still Plans To Sell AIG Stake
MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – PIMCO to Launch Total Return ETF Managed by Gross Bill Gross is the world’s largest bond fund manager. Now, he may be about to become one of the most transparent. Today, PIMCO filed a registration statement to list an exchange-traded version of the massive PIMCO Total Return Fund. Unlike traditional mutual… Continue reading PIMCO Joins The Actively Managed ETF Game
The Financial Times – Silver’s conspiracy theorists In 1980 it was the Hunt brothers. In 1998 it was Warren Buffett. And in 2011? For anyone unversed in the history of the silver market, those dates refer to market squeezes that caused surges in the silver price. The talk among some conspiracy-minded traders and analysts is… Continue reading Conspiracy Theorists Unite