Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis – Invisible Stock Bubble; Russell Napier sees S&P 500 Drop to 400 Finally, inquiring minds may wish to consider the video Long-View-Historian-sees-S-P-fall-to-400. Russell Napier warns the real bear market in the S&P has yet to come and that could push the S&P 500 index down to 400. The trigger for… Continue reading Economic Forecasting: Go Big Or Go Home
The Wall Street Journal – Meredith Whitney: The Hidden State Financial Crisis Next month will be pivotal for most states, as it marks the fiscal year end and is when balanced budgets are due. The states have racked up over $1.8 trillion in taxpayer-supported obligations in large part by underfunding their pension and other post-employment… Continue reading “Professional Scary Person” Meredith Whitney Speaks
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Corporate Bond Issuance, The Only Credit Channel Working? Corp. Bond Issuance, The Only Credit Channel Working? -2 Excess Returns High Yield & Investment Grade Spreads Decomposing The High Yield Market Low Stock Volume, High Treasury Volume No Recovery For Housing Employment, Same As 11 Years Ago… Continue reading Untitled
Earnings Estimates In the video above, Hewitt Packard’s CEO Leo Apotheker said the following: Carl: Before we let you go, Leo, I don’t know if there’s been a quarter since you joined where the company beat, if you will, I wonder you’ve got to be looking forward to that day. Leo Apotheker: We’ve beat this… Continue reading Understandings Earnings Estimates
Comment In the block above, we highlighted how earnings estimates are being gamed and have become more inaccurate in recent years. If earnings estimates are no longer a good tool in predicting economic activity or market movements, can company guidance offer any insight? The chart below shows the daily number of companies offering positive guidance… Continue reading What Does Company Guidance Tell Us About The Economy?
<Click on chart for larger image> The New York Times – Floyd Norris: Housing Starts: Still Dead For the 12 months through April, there were 430,000 single family homes started. That figure is the lowest since the figures were first tallied in 1960, and it is down 75 percent from the peak of 1.7 million,… Continue reading Housing
The Sun – Selling Gold at Fort Knox Emerges as Next Big Question in Debate on Federal Debt Limit The next big question on the federal debt limit could be whether to start selling the government’s holdings of gold at Fort Knox — and at least one presidential contender, Ron Paul, has told The New… Continue reading Will The U.S. Government Start Selling Its Gold To Help With The Federal Debt?
USA Today – Why do investors sell in May and go away? Q: Why does it seem that many investors indeed sell and “go away in May. A: The adage “sell in May and go away” is one of the most recognized on Wall Street. And for good reason: It often pans out. Studies of… Continue reading Sell In May And Go Away
The New York Times – Will the Banks Finally Have to Answer? At long last, there may be a serious investigation into the mortgage mess — the kind that results in clarity as well as big fines and maybe even accountability. Gretchen Morgenson reported in The Times on Tuesday that Eric Schneiderman, the New York… Continue reading U.S. Banks
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – ECB Official Opposes Greek Debt Restructuring There is no need for Greece to restructure its public debt if it adheres to its program of economic and fiscal reforms, European Central Bank executive board member Juergen Stark said Wednesday. Speaking at a conference in a… Continue reading Greece
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Companies Rush to Borrow U.S. companies are racing to fill up on borrowed money, amid worries that interest rates are set to rise once the Federal Reserve ends its support for financial markets next month.Johnson & Johnson staged its biggest bond deal on record… Continue reading Corporate Bond Issuance, The Only Credit Channel Working?