Today's topics include Fed's Reverse Repo Facility usage falls to lowest level in a year, macro talk, Summers questions the politics of the Fed skip, the market isn't buying what the Fed is selling, central bank policy diverges, inflation is pushing retail sales higher, declining mobility & the housing market, SEC looking into Goldman's role in SVB's collapse, and Bostic violates trading rules again
Today's topics include a skip & two hikes, could financial stability concerns overtake the fight against inflation?, understanding Fedspeak, the curve inverts further, used cars' contribution to inflation, China's slowdown, fiscal policy criticisms, and more on the crypto lawsuits
The S&P 500 has entered a new bull market after rallying 20% from its low last year. A lack of market breadth and uncertainty regarding the economic and inflation outlook in the U.S. has investors positioning for more trouble in the stock markets. Fixed income sentiment is mixed.
Today's topics include one last check-in on FOMC expectations, how restrictive are rates?, a post-mortem on yesterday's CPI release, Judy Shelton has some advice for the Fed, the slide in same store sales, refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and an update on Binance's asset freeze
Year-over-year CPI declined in May, as anticipated. June's CPI release will be the last window of opportunity for inflation to fall by a large degree. The question is how far it will fall before year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation’s future growth rate.
Today's topics include Timiraos sets the table for a Fed skip, stop applying pre-covid mindset to current market, high yield defaults on the rise, the housing market, the rental market, office occupancy rates, and checking in on the world's richest
A replay of our June 15, 2023 conference call.
In the next 48 hours, the Treasury will issue $290 billion of securities. This will tell us much about liquidity and the market impact of refilling the Treasury's General Account (TGA).