Reuters – Goldman Sachs Slashes Its US GDP Forecast Again Goldman Sachs said Friday that it is cutting the firm’s estimates for U.S. growth in the second half of this year to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent, as it sees the economy “losing further momentum.” “In light of the downshift in the data this… Continue reading Economists Cut GDP Forecasts
Zero Hedge (blog) – Charting The Upcoming Recession, And Is Goldman Really Predicting A 2012 Year End S&P Range Of 700 – 900? In his weekly chart packet, Goldman’s high frequency strategist, David Kostin, who now changes his year end S&P targets almost as frequently as the firm’s economic team changes its GDP forecast, once… Continue reading Earnings And Recession
<Click on graphic for more detail> Bloomberg.com – Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Loans from Fed Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of… Continue reading Wall Street’s Secret Bailout
The New York Times – German Leaders Reiterate Opposition to Euro Bonds as a Way to Ease Crisis Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Sunday re-emphasized her opposition to issuing bonds backed by all the euro zone countries, a position that will be greeted enthusiastically by many of her fellow citizens but could unsettle investors… Continue reading Germany Says No Eurobonds
Bloomberg Brief – Four ‘Black Swan’ Days Since Aug. 4 Part of Pattern of Heightened Volatility Since 1951 there have been 57 four-standard-deviation-plus trading days for the S&P 500. Four of them have been since August 4. Such events statistically are supposed to happen only once every 100 years or so, assuming a normal distribution.… Continue reading The 100-Year Flood Every 5 Years
Bloomberg.com – Hedge Funds Most Bearish Since 2009 as Global Equities Lose 15% Bearish wagers against global stocks at hedge funds have surged to the highest level since July 2009 as the European debt crisis and reports showing an economic slowdown cause the biggest losses in almost three years. An index of hedge fund assets… Continue reading Hedge Funds
Bloomberg.com – Inflation May Embolden Foes of Fed Stimulus Signs that consumer prices are rising even as the U.S. economy slows may delay additional moves by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to spur growth. The Fed chairman, who is scheduled to speak at a Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference on Aug. 26, used the annual… Continue reading Is Inflation A Problem?
The Wall Street Journal – Treasury Yields Fall to Historic Lows as Stocks Plunge For at least 50 years, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded nothing lower than 2%—until Thursday. The yield sank to 1.9872% in early trading on Thursday, the first time it has hit that level since at least the 1960s, based on… Continue reading What Is The All-Time Low For The 10-Year Yield?
Bloomberg.com – Caroline Baum: Larry Summers’s Bad Math Is S&P Informed Opinion Looking at the big picture, the American Enterprise Institute’s Alex Pollock finds a “delicious irony” in the S&P downgrade. The only reason it carried so much weight is the federal government gave S&P that power. S&P is one of three nationally recognized statistical… Continue reading Was S&P Wrong To Downgrade The U.S.?
The Wall Street Journal – If ‘Junk’ Is a Leading Indicator, Look Out Alarm bells are ringing in the “junk” bond market. The 8.3% average yield on junk, or high-yield, bonds looks positively mouth-watering in this low-rate environment. And yet investors have been fleeing the sector in droves. Take the difference, or spread, between the… Continue reading Credit Leads Stocks!
CNBC – China May Stop Buying Treasurys as Growth Slows: Roach The weakness of the American consumer is having repercussions in China, which may stop buying more U.S. Treasurys as it focuses on internal consumption rather than exports, Stephen Roach, the non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, told CNBC Wednesday. That could result in “higher… Continue reading Will China Stop Buying Treasuries?