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Inflation Watch – The End of Easy Disinflation
July 12, 2023
Year-over-year CPI declined by more than expected in June. This CPI release was the last window of opportunity for inflation to fall by a large degree. Now that we are through June CPI, year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation’s future growth rate.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 12, 2023
Today's topics include fighting the last war, a retort to Barr's bank capital comments, Nasdaq special rebalancing reduces big tech weight, alternative methods of measuring inflation, checking back on the BoJ's yield curve control policy, beware of the meme stock return, how tight are financial conditions really?, cashing out of US equities, and who gets to work from home?
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Cartoons
July 12, 2023
Newsclips
Q2 2023 Earnings Preview
July 11, 2023
Q2 2023 earnings reports get underway this week. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline further in 2023, with a rebound later in the year and into 2024.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 11, 2023
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's inflation report, the seven names that drive the market, getting back to 2% target, used car prices fall, NY Fed's Williams says no recession, bankruptcies on the rise, the cost of New York luxury, offices saw less activity around the July 4th holiday, and who should worry the most about losing their job to AI?
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Cartoons
July 11, 2023
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 10, 2023
Today's topics include QT's effect on RRP, banks' loan losses, does tech's dominance have further to run?, stocks climb a wall of worry, China close to deflationary territory, some perspective on rising debt servicing costs, keeping an eye on real yields, remember Austria's century bonds?, and FedNow
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Cartoons
July 10, 2023
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Employment in Pictures – The Streak Comes to an End
July 7, 2023
Payrolls failed to beat estimates for the first time since March 2022. Traders still expect a hike at the July FOMC meeting followed by a September pause.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 7, 2023
Today's topics include a bond market breakout, how do interest rates cool inflation?, on Fednow, Americans working fewer hours, the rise of private credit, US still attracting foreign investment, and the global travel boom