<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Bond Yields Show 60% Odds of U.S. Recession The bond market indicator that has predicted every U.S. recession since 1970 shows that the economy has about a 60 percent chance of contracting within 12 months. The so-called Treasury yield curve, adjusted for distortions caused by the Federal… Continue reading The Odds Of A Recession
Comment Jim Bianco was on CNBC on Friday discussing payrolls and the economy. To view the interview click on the picture above. To view any of our recent interviews click here.
Jim Bianco was on Yahoo Finance on Friday discussing the long-term returns of stock versus bonds. We have discussed this topic several times, most recently in our September Total Return Review. To view the interview click on the picture above. To view any of our recent interviews click here.
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch – The inflation balloon is rapidly losing air Five months ago, the concern du jour in the financial markets was inflation. This was not unreasonable, in view of all the liquidity that the Federal Reserve had pumped into the banking system. Many participants remembered vividly the admonition of… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
The Wall Street Journal – Rally Has Legs: Dow Up 330.06 Monday’s gains came after German and French leaders said they were determined to present a “comprehensive package” by the end of October that would include a plan to recapitalize euro-zone banks as needed and address the Continent’s debt crisis. Europe’s stock markets soared…Still, the… Continue reading Stocks Rally On Low Volume
FT Alphaville (FT Blog) – ETF phantom liquidity What’s the difference between ETFs and derivatives? In our opinion, one can skew market fundamentals by messing with underlying assets, while the other one can’t. Let us explain using an analogy. Shoes. (Because everyone understands shoes.) Say you believe the price of Gucci shoes is going to… Continue reading The Case Against Synthetic ETFs
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – Gold, Silver Behaving Like Risky Assets Gold and silver sure aren’t behaving like safe havens. The precious metals are typically seen as safe stores of value in hard times — inflation, deflation, depression, war, whatever — but in recent weeks have fallen whenever stocks have… Continue reading Gold Speculation
Bloomberg.com – Europe Divided on Greek Writedowns That Juncker Says May Top 60% European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Europe’s debt crisis now threatens the region’s financial system as officials race to put together a new plan to end the turmoil. “The crisis has reached a systemic dimension,” Trichet told lawmakers in Brussels today… Continue reading A Freudian Slip For Juncker?
The Wall Street Journal – A Nobel for Non-Keynesians On Monday the Nobel Committee announced the winners of the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics: Thomas J. Sargent of New York University and Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and Christopher A. Sims of Princeton University. The award was given for “their empirical research on cause and effect… Continue reading The Nobel Prize in Economics
Bloomberg.com – Dexia Breakup Shows Limits of Saving Banks France and Belgium’s decision to break up Dexia SA (DEXB) three years after bailing the lender out shows how European governments are being hampered in rescuing banks without jeopardizing sovereign credit ratings, analysts said. The two governments chose yesterday to preserve Brussels- and Paris-based Dexia’s consumer… Continue reading Saving European Banks
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The Wall Street Journal – Chart Watchers See Upbeat Turn Several Technical Analysts Say Stock Moves Last Week May Signal a Market Bottom; ‘Upside Breakout’ Ahead? Dan Greenhaus, who looks at charts though he doesn’t consider himself a technician, has been watching the size of the S&P 500’s gains. The index rose 1.75% or more… Continue reading Has The Stock Market “Thrusted” Off A Bottom?