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Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios

February 10, 2012

Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios In this study, we look at how the markets perform under various deflation/inflation scenarios. This study stretches as far back as 1801 and covers stocks, “real” stocks, long term interest rates, “real” long term interest rates, short term interest rates, and the CRB. We also compare returns before… Continue reading Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios

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Lie-bor … Busted

February 10, 2012

The Financial Times – Citigroup took $50m loss over Libor probe Citigroup was forced to write off $50m after two traders accused of attempting to influence global lending rates left the bank, according to people familiar with a worldwide investigation that is gathering pace. Nine separate enforcement agencies in the US, Europe and Japan have… Continue reading Lie-bor … Busted

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Shock Of The Day: Operation Twist Is Driving Rates Lower

February 10, 2012

The Wall Street Journal – Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ Tangles Treasury Trade “Operation Twist” has got the Treasury market in a knot. One of the goals of Operation Twist, which was implemented in October, was to push investors out of Treasurys and into riskier assets such as stocks. Under the policy, the Federal Reserve, led by… Continue reading Shock Of The Day: Operation Twist Is Driving Rates Lower

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Buffett Hates Bonds, Gross Likes Them

February 10, 2012

Fortune – Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds In an adaptation from his upcoming shareholder letter, the Oracle of Omaha explains why equities almost always beat the alternatives over time Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At… Continue reading Buffett Hates Bonds, Gross Likes Them

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Too Bullish On Stocks?

February 10, 2012

<Click on chart for larger image> The Big Picture – Open Thread: “Where Are the Bears?” I was speaking to a friend who is a well known, well regarded Technician. She stated: “I dont know anyone who is bearish . . . Even Nouriel Roubini flipped bullish.” I thought that was an interesting observation. While… Continue reading Too Bullish On Stocks?

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Employment

February 10, 2012

The Economist – Jobs and the economy: A game of two halves Employment springs to life; will it fade again? The unemployment rate, which has repeatedly surprised economists with the speed of its descent, did so again: it fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%. Its decline from a peak of 10% in October… Continue reading Employment

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A Bad Foreclosure Deal

February 10, 2012

Bloomberg.com – Foreclosures to Climb Before Bank Deal Helps U.S. Housing Market The $25 billion settlement with banks over foreclosure abuses may result in a wave of home seizures, inflicting short-term pain on delinquent U.S. borrowers while making a long-term housing recovery more likely. Lenders slowed the pace of foreclosures as they negotiated with attorneys… Continue reading A Bad Foreclosure Deal

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How To Become A Wall Street Alpha Male

February 10, 2012

The Financial Times – Keep taking the testosterone Until a few years ago, doctor Lionel Bissoon, who practises what he calls integrative medicine on Manhattan’s smart Upper West Side, mostly treated middle-aged women for what is politely known as cellulite. Then the financial crisis hit Wall Street and a strange thing happened: a stream of… Continue reading How To Become A Wall Street Alpha Male

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Cartoons

February 10, 2012

None Today

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Government Credit vs. Private Credit

February 9, 2012

Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Vital Signs: Consumers Take on More Debt U.S. consumers ramped up borrowing in December. Consumer debt outstanding rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.3% from November to $2.498 trillion. Behind that was a seasonally adjusted 11.8% rise in nonrevolving credit, which includes car and student loans. Revolving… Continue reading Government Credit vs. Private Credit

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Mutual Fund Flows vs. ETF Flows

February 9, 2012

MarketWatch – Bernanke 2014 pledge sparks global shift Earnings are weakening. Greece is mired in dissent. The potential for war in the Middle East is as great as it’s been in years. And investors are pouring money back into stocks. Call it a contrarian play, but the size of the gains of stock indexes since… Continue reading Mutual Fund Flows vs. ETF Flows

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Larry Fink Loves Stocks

February 9, 2012

Bloomberg.com – Fink: Investors Should Be 100% in Equities Investors should have 100 percent of investments in equities because of valuations and higher returns than bonds, said Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s largest money manager. Investors who seek the safety of treasury bonds will have minimal returns and… Continue reading Larry Fink Loves Stocks

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