The New York Times – Europe Forecasts ‘Mild Recession’ for Euro Zone in 2012 While almost all countries face a slowdown, differences remain “pronounced,” the report from the European Commission said, with the debt crisis hitting worst those nations with poor public finances, weak banks and a history of low growth — a cocktail common… Continue reading All About Europe
<Click on chart for larger image> Business Insider – ECRI CHIEF ACHUTHAN: I’m Sticking With My Recession Call, The Numbers Are Still Awful ECRI chief Lakshman Achuthan is on CNBC. Last year he called for an imminent recession. Since then the economy seems to have improved quite a bit. He’s still not backing down. Here… Continue reading Is A Recession Still Coming?
The Economist – Oil markets: High drama Iranian threats are only one of many scares facing oil markets But as in any scary movie, the obvious suspect is not always to blame. Many analysts reckon that Iran would not close the strait because of the damage it would do to its own oil exports and… Continue reading Crude Oil/Gas Prices
BusinessWeek – Intrade, Where Politics Meets the Market The oracles known as Intraders don’t follow candidates’ policies; that’s why they’re so good Intrade’s status as an oracle among political pros is enhanced because its investors vote with their wallets, not their personal biases. “It’s a mental contest,” says Intrader Andrew Golding. “You’re taking your knowledge… Continue reading Intrade Betting
The Council on Foreign Relations – Why We Can’t Believe the Fed The Fed studied its own staff’s forecasting performance over the period 1986 to 2006. It found that the average root mean squared error—or the deviation from the actual result—for the staff’s next-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts was 1.34, compared with 1.29 by… Continue reading The Federal Reserve’s Forecasts Are No Good
The Financial Times – Pension gap spells trouble for muni bonds In recent months, America’s mighty Securities and Exchange Commission has been making US local government officials nervous. The reason? In 2010, New Jersey settled civil fraud charges brought by the SEC for allegedly misleading bondholders about the funding of its pension. Since then, the… Continue reading Munis and Pensions
The Economist – Daily chart: Rolling back the years America has lost almost a decade of progress to the financial crisis TALK of a Japanese style “lost decade” has abounded ever since the financial crisis took hold in 2008. The Economist has crunched the numbers and on the basis of seven indicators covering economic output,… Continue reading The Lost Decade
The Economist – High-frequency trading: The fast and the furious High-frequency trading seems scary, but what does the evidence show? But imagining a world without high-frequency trading is also hard. That is because the HFTs are what Larry Tabb of TABB Group, a research firm, describes as an “outcrop” of the market structure. They are… Continue reading HFT
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US prime money funds raise eurozone exposure US prime money market funds have recently increased their exposure to banks in the eurozone after months of large reductions, but this key source of funding for the financial system remains vigilant about risk according to a new… Continue reading Money Market Funds’ Exposure To Europe
The Wall Street Journal – Bond Myths Are Exposed by Greece It used to be so simple. Developed-country government bonds were risk-free, while corporate bonds carried credit risk to varying degrees. The euro-zone crisis has exposed that assumption to be false. Not only do some government bonds contain credit risk. But the Greek debt restructuring… Continue reading Comparing Corporate Bonds To Government Bonds