The Wall Street Journal – Greece Faces Bond-Swap Holdouts The overall participation rate in an unprecedented Greek debt-restructuring deal has exceeded Greece’s expectations, a senior finance ministry official said Monday, despite some holders of Greek foreign-law bonds still refusing to take part in the offer. The official said 97% of the bonds involved in Greece’s… Continue reading Greek Holdouts
Bloomberg.com – U.S. Economy Needs Stimulus, Not Soothsayers Here’s something you don’t often hear an economist admit: We have very little idea where the economy will be next year. Truth be told, our best guesses just aren’t very good. Government forecasts regularly go awry. Private-sector economists and cutting-edge macroeconomic models do even worse…Why? Data are… Continue reading Economic Projections
<Click on chart for larger image> Business Insider – A Secret Jobs Report Will Be Coming Out Today… The official March Non-Farm Payrolls report comes out Friday, but we’ll get a nice sample today. It turns out out that auto sales correlate very nicely with jobs (not too surprisingly). Here’s the chart we ran last… Continue reading A Secret Jobs Report
Bloomberg Businessweek – Forget Gas Prices—Air Fares Are Getting More Painful Crude oil prices have jumped nearly 30 percent over the past six months, to $103 per barrel as of March 30. And while high fuel costs are likely to send several airlines into the red for the first quarter of 2012, the industry is… Continue reading The Supply & Demand Of Air Fares
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The Wall Street Journal – Jack Hough: It’s Time to Dial Back on Risk A Standard & Poor’s index of “low quality” stocks based on measures like earnings stability has gained 15% this year, versus 10% for its high-quality sibling. Greek stocks have leapt 17% this year, versus 11% for world shares overall. The top… Continue reading Stock Market Talk … Bearish and Bullish
Calculated Risk (blog) – McCulley: Monetary and Fiscal policy must be “irresponsible” in a liquidity trap From Paul McCulley and Zoltan Pozsar: Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap? The United States and much of the developed world are in a liquidity trap. However, policymakers still have not… Continue reading Does Keynesian Theory Work?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – James Grant: The Endless Spending Spree America’s debt is $15.6 trillion and growing. Instead of raising taxes, here’s an idea: Let’s try capitalism From George Washington to Dwight D. Eisenhower, the national debt tended to grow in wartime and shrink in peacetime. Because the… Continue reading How Can We Fix The Economy? Try Capitalism!
<Click on chart for larger image> Business Insider – The One Thing That Could Force Bipartisanship In Washington Everyone is freaking out about the fiscal cliff that U.S.economy faces in 2013. However, the situation might be so dire that it could potentially end partisanship at least temporarily, writes Citigroup’s Steve Wieting. Here’s an excerpt from… Continue reading Could A Debt Ceiling Fight Be Coming This Summer?
The Telegraph (UK) – Former RBS trader Tan Chi Min claims hedge fund asked UK bank to change Libor One of Europe’s largest hedge funds is alleged to have asked Royal Bank of Scotland to alter the London interbank borrowing rate (Libor) five years ago, according to a court filing by a former trader at… Continue reading Lie-Bor Now Costing Jobs
Wharton – The End of the 30-year Bond Bull Market? Is the great 30-year bull market in bonds coming to an end? Yes, perhaps — or maybe not: It depends on whom you ask and how flexible your timing is. While many people think of bonds as conservative holdings, they have produced stellar returns for… Continue reading Two Views On The Bond Market
Spiegel (Germany) – The World from Berlin: ‘Even a 1-Trillion Euro Firewall Wouldn’t Be Enough’ European finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on Friday agreed to boost the euro-zone firewall to over 800 billion euros. The move marks another U-turn on the part of the Merkel administration, which recently dropped its opposition to increasing the fund.… Continue reading Europe Is Not Doing Enough