At the beginning of this year, we outlined our thesis that cash would return an average of 4%, bonds would return an average of 5% and stocks would return an average of 6% over the next several years. In revisiting this thesis, we find most of our key assumptions still largely intact. Join us as we go through the math and explain the drivers of our thinking.
Precious metals continued their climb in November and are closing in on their best year in many decades.
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on December 1, 2025
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on November 28, 2025
Updating the banking industry's unrealized losses and net interest margins through Q3
Should housing be viewed in a utilitarian manner as a place to live or should it be considered an investment that helps fund retirement? Both cannot be true at the same time.
Individual stock implied volatility is consistently higher than at the index level.
Only 17% of all sovereign debt yields more than 4%.
A look at how the bond market is faring so far in 2025
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.