Barron’s – Alan Abelson: Wait Till Next Year Two respected readings of investor sentiment show the spread between bulls and bears is declining One simple but not infallible way to determine investors’ mood is by keeping an eye on the weekly readings of Investors Intelligence and the American Association of Individual Investors. In the latest… Continue reading Stock Market Sentiment
Bloomberg.com – The Cheerful Billionaire Who Thinks Obama’s a Socialist It hardly counts as news anymore when some put-upon billionaire starts fulminating about Barack Obama. The likes of the Koch brothers, Stephen Schwarzman, and Leon Cooperman have already called the president all sorts of terrible things, Schwarzman even comparing his tax policies to the Nazis’… Continue reading If You Watch Cable News ….
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Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Housing Recovery May Validate Fed’s QE3 Legitimate signs of life in the housing market suggest the Federal Reserve may have chosen the right lever to stimulate the economy when it launched its latest stimulus bid last month. Many Fed officials reckon that as the housing market’s problems have been… Continue reading Who Is QE3 Helping?
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Comment The table below shows earnings results now that the first 100 S&P 500 companies have reported. From the end of the Great Recession (Q3 2009) through Q2 2012, the first 100 companies to report each year beat expectations an average of 75% of the time (% Positive). This number is well above 50% because… Continue reading Earnings Season So Far – Lousy
The Wall Street Journal – Debt Fuels a Dividend Boom Firms Collect Payouts, and Investors Get Yield; ‘Reminiscent of the Bubble Era’ Private-equity firms are adding debt to the companies they own in order to fund payouts to themselves, a controversial practice now reaching a record pace. Leonard Green & Partners LP, Bain Capital LLC… Continue reading Are Rising Dividends Evidence Of A Bubble?
<Click on chart for larger image> MSN Money – Student loan debt hits new record The average college student who graduated in 2011 had $26,600 in student loans, according to a new report, which estimates that two-thirds of last year’s graduates left college with student loan debt. The average debt is the largest since the… Continue reading Student Loans – An Education Bubble?
The Economist – Buttonwood: The real deal Low real interest rates are usually bad news for equity markets AS SAVERS know all too well, interest rates are low across the developed world. In many countries, they are negative in real (ie, after inflation) terms. In short, thrift is being punished. Low or negative real rates… Continue reading Real Rates
The Financial Times – M Stanley shows the ‘flaky’ side of model Morgan Stanley has reignited a debate over how investment banks measure daily trading risks after it adjusted its own benchmark of potential losses in a move that boosted its reported capital buffers. The bank said that it had changed its so-called “value at… Continue reading Measuring Risk
The Washington Post – CEOs warn Obama, Congress to avoid ‘fiscal cliff’ The largest U.S. financial firms warned Thursday of dire consequences if Washington fails to head off year-end tax hikes and spending cuts, saying they could jolt the economy into recession and prompt a new and dangerous downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. These… Continue reading Today’s Fiscal Cliff Panic
James Bianco: The US Economy Has Not Created New Wealth from The Big Picture on FORA.tv Comment Click on the image above to view a preview of our presentation at The Big Picture Conference. Our presentation, along with any other presentation from the conference, can be purchased for download here.