<Click on chart for larger image> MSN Money – Welcome to the new recession The narrowing of the “spread” or the difference in rates between corporate bonds and Treasurys is a reflection of people’s lowered expectations that negative events, such as default or bankruptcy, will happen. This isn’t surprising, given impressive earnings growth coming out… Continue reading Recession Talk
The Wall Street Journal – Refi Program Expansion Eyed The Obama administration is considering expanding its mortgage-refinancing programs to include borrowers whose mortgages aren’t backed by the government and who owe more than their homes are worth, according to people familiar with the discussions. President Barack Obama outlined a similar proposal in February, but it… Continue reading Refis
Bloomberg.com – Simon Johnson: Will 2013 Mark the Beginning of American Decline? Becoming the world’s top economic dog isn’t easy. That’s because any contender — China or anyone else — needs to answer three tough questions. First, do they have secure property rights for individuals? Who would trust their rainy-day funds or their most innovative… Continue reading Is America Doomed?
Comment On Friday Jim was on Bloomberg TV discussing the fiscal cliff. To view the interview click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews click here. Near the end of the interview the conversation got interesting between Jim and Alan Knuckman. Alan took exception to Jim’s comments that the U.S economy… Continue reading Does A Recession Start January 1?
Reuters – “Fiscal cliff” creates waiting game for payrolls firms At payroll processing businesses across the United States, the “fiscal cliff” stalemate in Washington means uncertainty over tax-withholding tables just days before the start of 2013. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service still has not issued the tables for next year that show how much money… Continue reading IRS To Issue Updated Tax Withholdings Tables For 2013
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bond-Fund Cheer Could Turn Quickly The bull market for fixed income is over 30 years old, and the current crop of investors may be in for a rude awakening when it finally turns sour. There have been bond bear markets before, of course—notably in the… Continue reading Stock & Bond Mutual Funds
Business Insider – There Was Nothing Special About The Stock Market In Last 4 Years It sure felt like a crazy couple years for stocks. But in the context of history, it wasn’t very crazy at all. LPL Financial’s Jeff Kleintop recently forwarded to us this chart of the four-year performance of the S&P 500… Continue reading How Special Is This Equity Bull Market?
The Wall Street Journal – Push for Cheaper Credit Hits Wall The Federal Reserve’s intensified campaign to push mortgage rates lower has hit a wall, in part because a shift in the lending landscape has made some banks unable, or unwilling, to pass along cheaper credit. the Fed began buying mortgage-backed securities to lower interest… Continue reading Has QE Become Ineffective?
The Wall Street Journal – Global Currency Tensions Rise Japan’s Abe Calls on Central Bank to Resist Easing Moves by U.S. and Europe Japan’s incoming prime minister fired a volley into increasingly tense global currency markets, saying the country must defend itself against attempts by other governments to devalue their currencies by ensuring the yen… Continue reading Currency Wars
Slate.com – The Myth of the “Bond Vigilantes” You can imagine a kind of cult in the ancient Middle East in which the villagers are expected to make regular sacrifices to the gods in order to stave off their wrath. Well one year the proper sacrifices aren’t made and yet no suffering seems to be… Continue reading Do Bond Vigilantes Actually Exist?
The New York Sun – Editorial: The Real Libor Scandal “The conspiracy to fix Libor appears more extensive than had been previously thought,” harrumphs the Financial Times in respect of the $1.2 billion fine of UBS over the London Interbank Offered Rate. “This was not just a question of massaging submissions to make UBS’s financial… Continue reading The LIBOR Scandal