The New York Times – Student Debt Slows Growth as Young Spend Less The anemic economy has left millions of younger working Americans struggling to get ahead. The added millstone of student loan debt, which recently exceeded $1 trillion in total, is making it even harder for many of them, delaying purchases of things like… Continue reading Student Debt
Bloomberg.com – Rally Matches 1990s Web-Fed Gains With Valuations 28% Lower Returns from the U.S. equity bull market that started four years ago are matching those from the last half of the 1990s even as valuations are 28 percent lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 26.2 percent annually including dividends since March… Continue reading Stock Market Valuations … What About 2007?
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Optimistic Analysts, Pessimistic Strategists Since we’re on the topic of analysts, having just hosted a spreecast with two of the winners of our Best on the Street contest, let’s say one more thing about the analyst class: They’re more optimistic than the strategists. That’s how it seems after looking at the… Continue reading Top Down vs. Bottom Up Strategists
Bloomberg.com – Argentina’s Deadbeat Special: Buy a 4% Bond or Go to Jail President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner wants tax evaders hiding about $160 billion in dollars to help finance Argentina’s oil-producing ambitions. Her offer: Buy a 4 percent bond or face the prospect of jail time. The tax authority announced the plan May 7,… Continue reading Buy These Bonds Or Go To Jail!
The Wall Street Journal – Putting Retail Sales in Their Proper Place “Put on a hat—don’t you know you lose 90% of your body heat through your head?” It is incredible how this warning gets passed from generation to generation despite being patently ridiculous. It is the equivalent of articles that worry about the health… Continue reading Some Perspective On Retail Sales
The Globe & Mail (Canada) – Master of doom Marc Faber is feeling gloomy about Canada Q: Mr. Faber, you have indicated you believe there will be a market crash this summer. Can you tell us what might precede such an event? – Bill Faber: “What was the trigger of the ‘87 crash when markets… Continue reading The Disconnect Between Asset Prices & The Economy
MSN/Money – Time to prepare for a bear market in bonds With junk debt yielding below 5%, it’s obvious investors are over-reaching for returns. The U.S. stock market has obviously been making new highs as bond yields have been making new lows. The big catalyst behind these good times, it could be argued, has been… Continue reading Bond Bears
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Gene Epstein: We Were Right! Barron’s jubilantly joins the hoopla over Dow 15,000, having predicted it early last year. But the hoopla is haunted by one surprising fact: In inflation-adjusted terms, the blue-chip average is still well below its record high of Jan. 14, 2000. Social Security… Continue reading Another Cover For Contrarians
AEIdeas (blog) – James Pethokoukis: Is the real US unemployment rate 11.3% or 7.5%? A new Goldman Sachs study offers an answer The 7.5% US unemployment rate, at its lowest level since 2008, seems to be telling a story of slow-but-steady recovery after the Great Recession and Financial Crisis. Unfortunately, the bulk of evidence suggests… Continue reading An Improving Jobs Market?
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money The next chief of the Federal Reserve will decide when to reverse the easy-money policies of Ben Bernanke, a judgment that could strangle the economic recovery if made too early or trigger runaway inflation if made too… Continue reading Who Will Be The Next FOMC Chairman?
The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: How the Fed lost its cred A new book reflects the increasing sense of unease about the US central bank During the past week, I have been travelling across America and lugging with me a controversial new book, The Great Deformation, by David Stockman. “Lugging” is particularly apt: this… Continue reading The Great Deformation
Reuters – Counterparties: Well Fed critics At a conference in Chicago today, Ben Bernanke seemed like he was talking directly to his critics. In a speech on monitoring the financial system, Bernanke’s message was, essentially: we’re keeping an eye on things. (Shadow banking, in particular, is still a risk, he warned.) Bernanke’s speech comes on… Continue reading Krugman Takes On The Hedge Fund Industry