The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has been contracting for 20 consecutive months, but no recession is in sight. While this model might be wrong, it can still be useful.
Today's topics include inflation in 2024, what kills the speculative spirit?, the case for even lower rates, strategists predict a 2.4% return for stocks in 2024, stocks & bonds priced for perfection, recessionary false alarms, and renting vs. buying
Today's topics include the Powell pivot rally, economists' forecasts one year ago, 2023 was the year markets forgot about COVID, the impact of central banks, reasons for the Fed to cut, how you look at inflation matters, just how bad is the housing market?, troubling signs for consumer spending, ending fiscal support in the Eurozone, and more attempts to stimulate growth in China
Today's topics include much ado about nothing - SOFR edition, blame 0DTE options, the recession that never materialized in 2023..., ...hasn't deterred some from expecting one in 2024, the dash for trash, dealers' record hedging needs, and an eye on the american consumer
Join us Thursday, December 21, 2023 for our next conference call.
Can a narrative be so powerful that no one dares go against it despite solid evidence it might not be correct? Is this the case with the so-called soft landing? Is it really a "no landing" boom that could re-ignite inflation?
Today's topics include timing the first rate cut, another forgotten Fed facility regains popularity, QE-Era interest rates were the exception rather than the rule, a few giants run the basis trade, a 0DTE ETF, European spreads diverging from U.S. spreads, and Krugman puts on gaslighting clinic
Today's topics include are real rates restrictive?, timing the first cut, the mechanics of setting FOMC policy, a wide range of rate expectations, another way to view the concentrated rally, BofA's latest fund manager survey bullish on stocks & bonds, and some serious inflows into SPY lately