On November 5 the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments about the legality of the President's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. Lower courts have ruled he exceeded this authority. If the Supreme Court agrees, it is possible they could order refunds of hundreds of billions of tariffs which could be highly destabilizing for the economy. A ruling is expect late this year or early in 2026.
Stocks have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins on record over the past six months.
Today's topics include Miran thinks policy rate is still too restrictive, the K-shaped economy, the cost of power in the AI infrastructure era, Waller still wants a December cut, the AI winners versus everything else...again, some context on the state of the U.S. economy, and fixed mortgages still dominant
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses AI's impact on markets.
Today's topics include two central banks diverge, commentary on Fed dissents, locking in fed funds as the Fed's tool, Burry resurfaces, more on AI capex spending, housing affordability, ETFs are making mutual funds old school, and Solomon's debt reckoning warning echoes Dalio
Fallen angels are superior performers to the rest of the high yield market.
A healthy dispersion of individual stock returns is not the only ingredient necessary to make a good stock-picking environment.
When financial conditions are easing, investors are usually moving up the risk spectrum to capture gains.
For many decades, gold's returns were negatively correlated to stock returns. This has not been the case since the pandemic in March 2020.