MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Why Stocks Aren’t Expensive, in One Chart In today’s WSJ, Alexandra Scaggs makes the case that the market is starting to look overvalued. She notes stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at their highest price-to-earnings ratio in nearly four years and are just above their average multiple of the past… Continue reading Stock Market Valuations
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Seasonal Bull Market for Treasurys No Sure Thing Does the seasonal trading pattern still work the magic for Treasury bond bulls? Treasury bond prices have typically rallied and their yields have fallen between early August and mid-October. But investors may need to tread with caution… Continue reading Treasury Seasonals
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Food-Stamp Use Rises; Some 15% Get Benefits Food-stamp use rose 2.4% in the U.S. in May from a year earlier, with more than 15% of the U.S. population receiving benefits. One of the federal government’s biggest social welfare programs, which expanded when the… Continue reading Food Stamps
The Wall Street Journal – Consumers Set to Reach for Their Wallets Sluggish spending in the second quarter may give way to a more buoyant outlook. Americans’ ability to spend has looked a bit challenged in recent months. But that might be about to change. Consumers were slow to reach for their wallets in the… Continue reading Consumer Spending
The Wall Street Journal – Emerging World Loses Growth Lead Momentum in the global economy is shifting to the developed world, away from the emerging economies that had led growth since the financial crisis. For the first time since mid-2007, the advanced economies, including Japan, the U.S. and Europe, together are contributing more to growth… Continue reading Emerging Markets
Yesterday we hosted a webcast. Below are the top takeaways, along with the audio, video, and PDF: Where was the economy in September 2012 when the Fed said it needed more QE? Nominal GDP YoY was 4.8%, it is now 2.9%. Real GDP YoY was 3.1%, it is now 1.4%. Private Payrolls have been steady,… Continue reading Will The Federal Reserve Taper Next Month?
The Wall Street Journal – Stocks Start to Look Overvalued Stocks in S&P 500 Are at Highest Price/Earnings Ratio in Nearly Four Years For the past several years, stock-market bulls have been able to argue that stocks are cheap. That argument is increasingly on shaky ground. In recent weeks, the S&P 500 index has pushed… Continue reading Are Stocks Overvalued?
Casey Research – Lacy H. Hunt: The Federal Reserve Relies on a Flawed Economic Model In response to the Fed’s QE programs, stock prices rose, but no convincing evidence indicates that this has boosted consumer spending in any meaningful way. Treasury yields rose during those operations, in part because the rise in stock prices has… Continue reading The Federal Reserve’s Flawed Models
Comment Yesterday we mentioned the story below: DealBook (NYT blog) – JPMorgan Reveals It Faces Criminal and Civil Inquiries JPMorgan Chase disclosed on Wednesday that it faced a criminal and civil investigation into whether it sold shoddy mortgage securities to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis, the latest legal threat to the nation’s… Continue reading Another Week, Another Billion In Fines At JP Morgan
The New York Times – SAC to Keep Managing Money While Facing Indictment Federal prosecutors and the investment firm SAC Capital Advisors agreed on Thursday to a protective order that requires the firm to keep most of its money in its fund while operating under a criminal indictment, according to a person briefed on the… Continue reading SAC Allowed To Continue Breaking The Law?
The Financial Times – Michael Mackenzie: End of QE will drive a bond sell off to remember Losses for bonds will accelerate as equity markets gradually accept Fed taper Vast exposure on the part of bond investors and a small exit has exacerbated this year’s bond sell off and points to a potentially epic bear… Continue reading The End of QE