Bloomberg.com – Caroline Baum: Fed Gains Nothing With Taper Delay The best argument I’ve heard for the Federal Reserve to begin reducing the size of its monthly asset purchases (otherwise known as quantitative easing) at its Sept. 17-18 meeting is to get it over with. That’s the gist of what Vince Reinhart, chief U.S. economist… Continue reading Timing The Taper
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Oil Prices Near Level That Prompts Talk of Stocks Release Escalating tensions between Syria and western nations led by the U.S. are lifting crude-oil prices to levels that stir talk of consumer nations tapping their vast emergency stockpiles. Global benchmark Brent crude oil climbed to… Continue reading The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Wall Street Journal – Going Down the Wrong Mortgage Road So much for skin in the game. No- or low-money-down mortgages helped fuel the housing bubble and subsequent crash. Following the crisis, there were understandable calls for a return to more prudent practices, where borrowers would be required to make some sort of down… Continue reading Housing
Index Universe – The ‘New Normal,’ And Its Consequential Morphing In four quick years, the concept of the “new normal” has gone from being viewed as unlikely by most analysts and policymakers to becoming consensus. The popular application of the phrase now extends well beyond its original conceptualization that simply encompassed economic and financial prospects.… Continue reading The New Normal
The Wall Street Journal – Detroit’s Woes Add to Angst Over Municipal Debt Yields on investment-grade municipal bonds have risen to almost the same as similarly rated corporate bonds. That is a rare occurrence, considering municipal bonds have lower default rates and the interest is generally tax free. As of Tuesday, yields on corporate bonds… Continue reading Detroit & The Muni Market
Zero Hedge (blog) – The “War” Effect Via Citi How do markets (US equities, Gold, Crude Oil, and the USD) react around US military conflicts…? Citi shows what happened before-and-after the Gulf War, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya… and why Syria is arguably more complex than these previous conflicts…
BusinessWeek – Correlations: East Asia Grows Older, Faster East Asia’s “tiger” economies, once home to a big supply of young labor, are seeing the fastest rise worldwide in the percentage of their elderly population. Is a grayer nation destined for decline? Harvard economist David Bloom says such fears may be overblown, if the developed world… Continue reading Aging Demographics
Bloomberg.com – Caroline Baum: Academics Need a Visit to the Real World Sometimes I get the feeling that academics are so focused on using mathematical equations to validate their theories, they forget to give their ideas a reality check. Take the paper presented Friday at Jackson Hole by economists Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, professors… Continue reading Giving Mathematical Models A Reality Check
<Click on graphic for larger image> h/t The Big Picture
The Fiscal Times – How Krugman Got It Wrong on the Markets and Tapering In a recent column, Krugman ascribed the current collapse of emerging market currencies to – no kidding – financial deregulation! Yup, it’s not the trillions of dollars being spun out of Ben Bernanke’s money machine that has crushed Brazil’s real or India’s… Continue reading Krugman
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/503842-712736.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: What Has Changed? Do August Payrolls Matter This Much? Are “Financial Conditions” The 3rd Condition For Exiting Purchases? The Federal Reserve Is Not Listening To The Markets Tapering Is Tightening!! The Bond Selloff In Perspective A Short History Of QE… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US house prices rise but outlook more cautious on rate fears US home prices rose sharply in June but the pace of gains has slowed amid rising mortgage interest rates, data on Tuesday showed. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, which tracks property values in 20… Continue reading Home Prices Continued To Rise … When Rates Were Still Low