Prudent Bear – Emerging Market Crisis—Redux? The growth slowdown is now attenuated by capital outflows, driven by fundamental concerns about emerging market economies but also changing U.S. policy dynamics. Improvements in American economic conditions have encouraged discussion about ‘tapering’ the U.S. Federal Reserve’s liquidity support, currently $85 billion per month. U.S. Treasury bond interest rates… Continue reading Emerging Markets
The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street Profits May Halve in Second Half A strong first half had initially signaled a good year for Wall Street, but recent political and market events will likely drive profitability and compensation lower, according to a report released by New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. Profits could total about… Continue reading Wall Street Profits & Bonuses
CNBC – Faber: Fed could up QE to $1 trillion a month Marc Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC on Monday that investors are asking the wrong question about when the Federal Reserve will taper its massive bond-buying program. They should be asking when the central bank will be increasing… Continue reading Marc Faber Is Looking For Increased Purchases, Not A Taper
FT Alphaville – “Tapering is off the table” Andrew Law of Caxton Associates: People blamed the government debt negotiations last year for growth falling and no doubt they will blame them again this year… I just don’t see how the economy is going to accelerate in the foreseeable future. We’ve got more budget negotiations to… Continue reading Tapering Will Never End
Value Walk – CNBC Loses ‘First In Business’ Spot To Prime Competitor FBN If this all seems familiar it’s because CNBC had its worst quarter in twenty years over the summer, and then promptly beat that by doing even worse for Q3. These latest Nielsen numbers show that the downward spiral is continuing full force,… Continue reading FOX Business Overtakes CNBC In Afternoon Ratings
The Wall Street Journal – The Morgan Shakedown The truth is that he didn’t indict bankers because the 2008 crisis wasn’t the result of bank fraud, despite liberal mythologizing. It was a classic credit panic caused by bad government policy coinciding with the rational exuberance of bankers who were responding to the incentives for excessive… Continue reading Arrest Barney Frank!
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The Wall Street Journal – Fiscal Crisis Leaves Stocks in Sweet Spot The federal government’s shutdown and threat of default on U.S. debt spawned anxiety among businesses and consumers, hurt the U.S.’s image around the world and took about half a percentage point off fourth-quarter economic growth, economists estimate. But the economy kept growing. Inflation… Continue reading Does Data Matter Now Or Is It Still All About QE?
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Quebec Train Fire Prompts New Oil Railway-Shipping Costs New rules will boost costs to transport crude by rail in North America as trains are forecast to carry as much as 2 million barrels a day, about equal to daily output from Norway. “You’re going to see a… Continue reading Shipping Bakken Crude Oil
Bloomberg.com – Fed QE Taper Seen Delayed to March as Shutdown Bites The Federal Reserve will delay the first reduction in its bond purchases until March after the government shutdown slowed fourth-quarter growth and interrupted the flow of data, economists said. Policy makers will pare the monthly pace of asset buying to $70 billion from… Continue reading Timing The Taper
The Cleveland Federal Reserve – Implications of the Government Shutdown on Inflation Estimates Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The government shutdown, which ended late on October 16, caused a delay in the release of these statistics and many… Continue reading The Shutdown’s Effect On CPI’s Accuracy
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Fed’s Williams: Unconventional Policies Unlikely Be Permanent Some of the most prominent parts of the current monetary policy tool kit will likely be retired when the Federal Reserve is able to raise short term interest rates above their current zero percent level, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President… Continue reading The Fed Assures Us QE Is Not Permanent