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Memo To Talking Heads, Q3 Earnings Are Not That Great
October 28, 2013
The Wall Street Journal – Aiming Too Low on Apple Is Risky Shot Particularly during the years Steve Jobs was running the company, the pattern for earnings was for expectations to be set low and then shattered. Take the comments of one pundit in June 2011 who asserted that “buying Apple stock before it reports… Continue reading Memo To Talking Heads, Q3 Earnings Are Not That Great
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The Correlation Between Stocks & Bonds
October 28, 2013
Bloomberg.com – Treasuries Risk Shown as Fed Distorts Stocks Correlation U.S. government bonds are acting more like equities than any time since before the credit crisis, making Treasuries a hidden risk to investors becalmed by the prospect of the Federal Reserve prolonging stimulus into 2014. Ten-year Treasuries are moving 0.024 percent for every one-percent change… Continue reading The Correlation Between Stocks & Bonds
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Taxing The Rich
October 28, 2013
<Click on chart for larger image> The Guardian – Why the 1% should pay tax at 80% In the United States, the share of total pre-tax income accruing to the top 1% has more than doubled, from less than 10% in the 1970s to over 20% today (pdf). A similar pattern is true of other… Continue reading Taxing The Rich
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Hedge Fund Returns
October 28, 2013
<Click on chart for larger image> Barron’s – Hedge Funds Assets Grow, Returns Don’t Critics contend that the number of hedge funds now dwarfs the number of investment opportunities they can exploit. Why smaller funds make sense. Hedge funds are bigger than ever. As of Sept. 30, the industry managed a record $2.51 trillion in… Continue reading Hedge Fund Returns
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Barron’s Cover Story
October 28, 2013
Barron’s – Jonathan R. Laing: Slowing to a Crawl The political fight over deficits is pointless unless Washington confronts a bigger threat: the coming decline in economic growth. Since World War II, America has been the envy of the world, boasting average annual economic growth of more than 3.5% for most of that period, despite… Continue reading Barron’s Cover Story
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Timing The Taper
October 28, 2013
The Wall Street Journal – At Fed, Some Want a Rule for When to Act Central Bank Governor Jeremy Stein, for One, Seeks a Trigger Point for QE Exit The Federal Reserve has struggled to communicate clearly about its plans for winding down its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. Some Fed officials think they’d have an… Continue reading Timing The Taper
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Managing Share Prices Through Buybacks
October 28, 2013
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – $3.5 trillion so far, and more ahead for buybacks The high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rate policy means stock buybacks likely will remain in vogue. Just a short time ago, it looked like the dividend payments and share repurchase programs that companies… Continue reading Managing Share Prices Through Buybacks
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Inflation
October 28, 2013
The New York Times – In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps Inflation is widely reviled as a kind of tax on modern life, but as Federal Reserve policy makers prepare to meet this week, there is growing concern inside and outside the Fed that inflation is not rising fast enough. Some economists… Continue reading Inflation
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Crude Oil Breakeven Rates
October 28, 2013
Bloomberg.com – Oil’s $5 Trillion Permian Boom Threatened by $70 Crude Energy producers on average need oil prices around $96 a barrel to break even on wells drilled in Permian layers known as the Cline Shale and the Northern Mississippian Lime, according to Mike Kelly, an analyst at Global Hunter Securities LLC. That compares to… Continue reading Crude Oil Breakeven Rates
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JP Morgan
October 28, 2013
The New York Times – GRETCHEN MORGENSON: A $13 Billion Reminder of What’s Wrong It was the deal of the week — a possible $13 billion settlement between JPMorgan Chase and the Justice Department to resolve an array of crisis-related mortgage cases. Was it fair or flawed? While arguments over the deal’s terms and numbers… Continue reading JP Morgan
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The EU
October 28, 2013
The Financial Times – Wolfgang Munchau: Optimism about an end to the euro crisis is wrong Adjustment is the key to ending the eurozone crisis. The optimists are saying that this process of regaining competitiveness is now taking place. Look at the success of the Spanish export sector or the fall in Greek wages. And,… Continue reading The EU