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December 4, 2013
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Comment A common theme among stock market bulls is that the current stock market rally is “hated.” This is supposed to be taken as a contrarian sign that investors are still avoiding the stock market and are underinvested, meaning the stock market has more room to run to the upside. The first chart below shows… Continue reading Is This Still A Hated Stock Market Rally?
A Dash Of Insight (Blog) – A Deeper Look at Those Skeptical Charts on Forward Earnings Estimates How useful are the forward earnings estimates of the sell-side analysts? There is a widely-circulated chart that reinforces the popular viewpoint that analyst forecasts are hopelessly optimistic…Here it is. The researchers begin each of the forecast years when… Continue reading Forward Earnings Estimates
MarketWatch – ISM doubters waiting for hard data to confirm uptrend Not everyone’s sold on the gains in a key manufacturing survey. A usually reliable indicator called the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index in November rose to the highest level since April 2011, continuing recent strength. But the so-called hard data on actual production… Continue reading Is ISM Still A Good Measure Of The Economy?
Bloomberg.com – You Can Invest Just Like Warren Buffett, If You’re A Quant Hedge Fund The Internet has paid a lot of attention today to this National Bureau of Economic Research working paper called “Buffett’s Alpha,” whose principal conclusions are: 1. You could build a robot that replicates Warren Buffett’s stock-picking performance. 2. The ingredients… Continue reading Warren Buffett vs. Quant Funds
The New York Post – John Crudele: Yet ready for lies and Labor Department statistics The Labor Department will release its latest unemployment data this Friday. But it won’t put a note in the news release saying that its jobless figures might have been fabricated. So I’ll write the note for the department, which is, understandably,… Continue reading BLS Lies?
Pimco – Bill Gross: On the Wings of an Eagle Where might our future mistakes be hiding? What keeps us up at night? Well I can’t speak for the others, having spoken too much already to please PIMCO’s marketing specialists, but I will give you some thoughts about what keeps Mohamed and me up at… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
Bloomberg.com – Repo Rate Rise Gives Nod to Fed Tool in Eventual Policy Reversal The Federal Reserve is starting to create a floor for money-market rates with a tool that may be pivotal to the central bank’s eventual siphoning of the unprecedented liquidity added to the U.S. banking system. The Fed has been extracting cash… Continue reading The Fed’s Fixed Rate Repo Facility
Bloomberg.com – Yuan Passes Euro as 2nd-Most Used Trade-Finance Currency China’s yuan overtook the euro to become the second-most used currency in global trade finance in 2013, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The currency had an 8.66 percent share of letters of credit and collections in October, compared with 6.64 percent… Continue reading Yuan Tops Euro
Financial Analysts Journal – Clifford Asness: My Top 10 Peeves “Volatility” Is for Misguided Geeks; Risk Is Really the Chance of a “Permanent Loss of Capital” Bubbles, Bubbles, Everywhere, But Not All Pop or Sink Had We But World Enough, and Time, Using Three- to Five-Year Evaluation Periods Would Still Be a Crime Whodunit? I… Continue reading Pet Peeves Of Finance
Barron’s – Shiller and Gundlach Size Up the World At first glance, Robert Shiller and Jeffrey Gundlach make an odd pair. Shiller, recently awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his “empirical analysis of asset prices,” is soft-spoken and has the professorial demeanor befitting a Yale academic. Indexes bearing his name for stock valuations and… Continue reading BubbleHunters
Bloomberg.com – Barry Ritholtz: No, Sales Didn’t Fall 2.7 Percent Thanksgiving Weekend One would hope that after a decade of people lamenting the poor reporting of Thanksgiving weekend retail data, the news media might learn to do better. Yet we see few if any signs that reporters understand the misleading press releases put out by… Continue reading Black Friday Figures: Don’t Let Facts Get In The Way Of A Good Story