Reuters – U.S. poised for stronger growth in 2014, Fed to taper by March: Reuters poll Thirty-two economists expect the U.S. central bank to act in March, while 22 said it would scale back its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program in January. Only 12 economists expected an announcement next week. Comment Note that this survey… Continue reading Timing The Taper
The Big Picture (blog) – Barry Ritholtz: Why Do Forecasters Keep Forecasting? Firm / S&P 500 Target / Missed it by this much (%, as of 12.10.2013) Wells Fargo / 1,390 / 29.7% UBS / 1,425 / 26.5% Morgan Stanley / 1,434 / 25.7% Deutsche Bank / 1,500 / 20.2% Barclays / 1,525 / 18.2% Credit Suisse / 1,550 / 16.3% HSBC… Continue reading The Accuracy Of Year-End Forecasts
MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – Michael J. Casey: Bubble? Schmubble. Real Problem Is Markets Don’t Work Anymore Relax. There is no stock bubble, at least not according to an army of Wall Street prognosticators who’ve weighed in on the issue recently. Maybe it’s because valuations aren’t what matter. Maybe the real problem is that markets are… Continue reading Do Markets Still Work?
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – World Led by U.S. Poised for Fastest Growth Since 2010 The world economy is primed for its fastest expansion in four years, with the U.S. propelling the improvement in output. Global growth will accelerate at least 3.4 percent in 2014 from less than 3 percent this year… Continue reading World Growth
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Hedge funds attract billions in new Hedge fund managers are attracting billions of dollars of fresh investments and launching new vehicles, even though their performance has fallen behind roaring equity markets this year. Interest in hedge funds among institutional investors, particularly pension funds, has increased… Continue reading Hedge Funds
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Timing The Taper Timing The Taper Stock Market Opinion Mutual Fund Flows An Updated Look At Stock Market Correlation Employment In Pictures – 1 Employment In Pictures – 2 Employment In Pictures – 3 Employment In Pictures – 4 Investing In Commodity Funds Investing In Commodity… Continue reading Charts of the Week
CNBC.com – Time for bond market to put down bets on Fed taper It’s time for bond traders to place their bets on whether the Fed is ready to begin tapering its bond buying program. The auction of $21 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday could provide an indication of… Continue reading Today’s Edition Of Taper Talk
Comment Most market watchers still subscribe to the belief that corporations hold record amounts of cash on their balance sheets just waiting to unleash into the economy. In March 2012 we pointed out how the Federal Reserve revised away nearly half a trillion dollars from corporate balances sheets (red line, all charts below). One of… Continue reading An Updated Look At The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters.com – Household net worth hits record high in third quarter Household net worth hit a record high in the third quarter as home prices marched up and the value of stocks and mutual funds surged, a hopeful sign for the economic recovery. The Federal Reserve said on Monday… Continue reading Household Net Worth Rises To A New Record
Bloomberg.com – Dan Fuss Joins Bill Gross Shunning Long-Term Debt Before Taper Dan Fuss is joining Bill Gross in shunning long-term debt before the Federal Reserve starts tapering its bond purchases. Fuss, whose Loomis Sayles Bond Fund (LSBDX) is trouncing almost all of its peers, said he is “greatly reducing” long-maturity bonds. Gross, who runs… Continue reading Bond Hate
<Click on chart for larger image> San Fransisco Federal Reserve – Why Do Measures of Inflation Disagree? In January 2012, the Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced it judged “that inflation at the rate of 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures… Continue reading Explaining The Fed’s Inflation Measures