MarketWatch – German minister: Low interest rates can’t continue Central banks around the world will eventually have to change their low interest-rate policy which is posing a problem for long-term investments, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with a German newspaper. “Of course, this can’t carry on forever,” Mr. Schaeuble was quoted… Continue reading Rising Rates
The Financial Times – Fears after key China debt level soars 70% Local government debt levels in China have soared to almost $3tn in less than three years, according to an official audit highlighting one of Beijing’s most daunting challenges as it attempts to sustain economic growth while avoiding a financial crisis. In a long-awaited… Continue reading China
Zero Hedge (Blog) – Consensus Now Believes Abenomics “Recovery” Will Fail Despite Shinzo Abe proudly proclaiming at the Tokyo Stock Exchange that “Abenomics will be a ‘buy’ next year as well,” Bloomberg notes surveys of economists believe his policies will fail to spark the wage increases required to outpace inflation. In fact – due to… Continue reading Abenomics
The Wall Street Journal – Winners of 2013: Boring Investors In the best year for U.S. stocks since 1995, the smart way to play the markets has been to follow the dumb money. So-called dumb-money strategies, which involve buying and holding a plain-vanilla portfolio of U.S. stocks, did much better than the more complex approaches… Continue reading Follow The Dumb Money
The Wall Street Journal – Behind the Lack of Confidence in Consumers Investors who slice and dice every economic and financial statistic under the sun are on shaky ground when it comes to one of the most important factors. Confidence, unlike measures of output or earnings, is intangible and consumers often fail to respond the… Continue reading Consumer Confidence
The Wall Street Journal – Private Equity Enjoys a Record Year Private-equity firms are set to return a record amount of cash to their investors for 2013, after taking advantage of buoyant markets to sell hundreds of billions of dollars of investments. From initial public offerings to company debt deals that pay private-equity investors hefty… Continue reading Private Equity’s Record Year
Forbes – Bubbles, Banks And Bitcoin The implied cost to the state of guaranteeing the value of all the money created by private sector lending activity is enormous,as we discovered when Lehman fell. So governments have been attempting to limit that guarantee – for example by capping the amount of private sector money that can… Continue reading Bitcoin
Financial Sense – James Bianco: The Next Crisis Will Be the Result of Too Much Government Involvement Jim is pleased to welcome James Bianco, President of Bianco Research, L.L.C., an Arbor Research & Trading, LLC affiliate. James and Jim discuss the recent Fed tapering, and what it might mean for future volatility. James believes the… Continue reading Discussing The Federal Reserve and Government Involvement
<Click on chart for larger image> The Miami Herald – Improving job market in Florida? No, just a glitchy website Call it the Economic Miracle That Wasn’t. Florida’s ongoing claims for unemployment benefits plummeted to the lowest level in six years from mid-October to early December. The average of 20,000 fewer weekly claims from the… Continue reading Claims Data
Barrons – Believe the Forecasters for a Standout 2014 At each turn of the year over the recent cycle, both the Federal Open Market Committee of the central bank and the consensus of forecasters polled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators have repeated the same refrain: Economic growth in the year gone by was no great… Continue reading GDP Forecasts