The Financial Times – Mohamed El-Erian: Do not bet on a broad emerging market recovery Valuations are more attractive but stock picking is important One striking aspect of last year’s markets is the extent to which emerging market assets underperformed those in advanced economies. As investors search for returns this year among some frothy asset… Continue reading Discussing Emerging Markets
Tim Duy’s Fed Watch – How Divided is the Fed? The minutes of the December 2013 FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday. I am looking for divisions within the FOMC on key topics, notably likely timing of the first rate hike, likely pace of rate hikes, and discussion of what follows the Evans rule. I… Continue reading A Fed Divided
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US inflation expectations hit four-month high US inflation expectations have jumped to their highest since September, with central banks and investors seeking insurance against the prospect that a recovering American economy will stoke price pressures. Inflation expectations, as measured by the difference between yields on… Continue reading TIPS At 4-Month High
<Click on chart for larger image> Investors – Obama Has Re-Inflated The Housing Bubble Subprime 2.0: It’s now official: The affordable-housing policies promoted by this administration have fed another housing bubble. Data show it started in 2011. Only question is when it will collapse. Obama Has Re-Inflated Housing Bubble. When housing prices outpace rental costs,… Continue reading The Housing Bubble
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Eurozone unemployment stays at record high Unemployment in the eurozone held steady at a record high of 12.1 per cent for an eighth consecutive month while strong regional divergences revealed the tentative nature of the bloc’s recovery. The total number of jobless hit 19.24m in… Continue reading Unemployment Holds Near Record Highs In Europe
The Economist – Long time gone Can American labour policies face the challenge of long-term joblessness? Behind this debate lurks the darker shadow of America’s long-term unemployed. In November 2013 they comprised 37.3% of the total unemployed. Their number is much higher than it was when extended UI programmes ended in the previous three recessions… Continue reading Unemployment In The U.S.
Businessweek – Hedge Funds Up 7.4% in 2013 to Trail S&P 500 for Fifth Year Hedge funds returned an average of 7.4 percent in 2013, trailing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) for the fifth straight year as U.S. markets rallied to record levels. Hedge funds rose less than 0.1 percent in December, compared… Continue reading 2013 Hedge Fund Returns
BBC – What happens when PPI cash runs out? There is more evidence today of the strength of Britain’s recovery in the confirmation that the UK’s car market last year returned to the kind of buoyant conditions not seen since before the 2007-8 crash. There was a rise in motor sales of almost 11% to… Continue reading A Look Behind The Recovery In The U.K.
The Wall Street Journal – Federal Probe Targets Banks Over Bonds Federal investigators are probing whether a number of Wall Street banks cheated clients in the years following the financial crisis by deliberately mispricing a type of mortgage bond that was central to the economic turmoil, according to people close to the inquiry. The investigation… Continue reading Targeting Banks
The Wall Street Journal – Alternative Lenders Peddle Pricey Commercial Loans Banks generally require solid credit scores and spend weeks reviewing financial statements, tax returns and business plans. Biz2Credit, an online loan broker for small businesses, says an analysis of loan applications made in December through its website showed big banks approved 18% of loan… Continue reading Commercial Loans
MarketWatch.com – 10 ‘brain bugs’ can kill Wall Street’s roaring bull Commentary: These personality traits have often combined to snuff rallies The bulls are roaring, optimists cheering, guru consensus sees 18% returns for 2014. Wall Street Journal headline: “Bernanke voices optimism on pace of economic recovery.” Bloomberg Businessweek also sees Wall Street gushing optimism, shouting,… Continue reading What Could Kill The Bull Market?