The Harvard Business Review – Justin Fox: What’s That You’re Calling a Bubble? The bubble has become an inescapable element of modern economic discourse. Every day somebody is proclaiming a new one, arguing that there isn’t one, proposing ways to prevent one, or complaining about how hard they are to prevent. What wielders of the… Continue reading What Is A Bubble?
The Wall Street Journal – Banks Cut as Mortgage Boom Ends With Rates Creeping Up and Refinancings Dwindling, Lenders Get Squeezed and Earnings Face Hit A sharp slowdown in mortgage refinancing is forcing banks to cut jobs, fight harder for a smaller pool of home-purchase loans and employ new tactics to drum up business. The… Continue reading Is The Mortgage Boom Ending?
The Economist – Free exchange: This time is worse Leading American economists argue that desperate times call for desperate measures Adding together the depth of the downturn and time until recovery, Ms Reinhart and Mr Rogoff calculate a “severity index”. Across the 100 cases the average decline in output per person from the pre-crisis level… Continue reading Debating Economists
BusinessWeek – The Bitcoin-Mining Arms Race Heats Up Bitcoin is the digital currency that thrills nerds, inspires libertarians, and incites the passions of economists who debate the value of money made from nothing but ones and zeroes. Devotees watch the fluctuations of Bitcoin’s price with a fanaticism typically reserved for college football scores. Alternative currency… Continue reading Bitcoin Makes The Cover
Pimco – Bill Gross: Seesaw Rider First of all the obvious: An investor should own bonds with less duration and shorter maturities when the teeter totter is on the losing end. Admittedly, those with long-term liability structures such as pension funds and insurance companies have to be careful about their underweights but as a rule,… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Forbes – Bert Dohmen: The Most Reliable Indicator Of An Approaching Market Top There are many other measures of sentiment. Suffice it to say that everything indicates excessive bullish sentiment normally only seen near important market tops. That means most of the available… Continue reading A Coming Market Top?
ABC – Norwegians become crown millionaires as sovereign wealth fund hits benchmark Everyone in Norway became a theoretical millionaire on Wednesday, in a milestone for the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund that has ballooned thanks to high oil and gas prices. Set up in 1990, the fund owns around 1 per cent of the world’s… Continue reading Move To Norway, Become A Millionaire
The Wall Street Journal – ‘Junk’ Loans Pick Up the Slack Revenue From Underwriting Leveraged Loans Surged A roaring revival in the market for loans to lower-rated companies is boosting the fortunes of the giant financial firms that arrange and package the loans. Wall Street revenue from corporate debt underwriting surged 15% to a record… Continue reading Wall Street Fees
The Financial Times – Investors hunt for the financial ‘polar vortex’ We know little about how the financial system is functioning The world watched fascinated this week as a polar vortex – a type of cyclone – brought dangerously icy weather to the US, tracking its moves across the country and observing its ferocity. If… Continue reading Does Anyone Know How Financial Markets Work?
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The Federal Reserve – Minutes From the December 17-18 FOMC Meeting Participants also reviewed indicators of financial vulnerabilities that could pose risks to financial stability and the broader economy. These indicators generally suggested that such risks were moderate, in part because of the reduction in leverage and maturity transformation that has occurred in the financial… Continue reading What Worries The Fed
The Wall Street Journal – ADP: U.S. Businesses Add More Jobs Than Expected U.S. businesses added jobs at a quick pace last month, notably in construction and manufacturing, according to a tally of hiring released Wednesday. Private-sector payrolls increased by 238,000 positions in December, according to the national employment report compiled by payroll processor Automatic… Continue reading ADP’s Accuracy Updated, Still Adds No Value Over The Consensus Guess