The Economist – The economics of shale oil: Saudi America The benefits of shale oil are bigger than many Americans realise. Policy has yet to catch up If the ban were lifted, crude-oil exports could start more or less straight away. The necessary pipes and tankers are mostly there already. But the political debate is… Continue reading Drilling For Crude In The U.S.
The Economist – Unemployment in America: Closing the gap America’s labour market has suffered permanent harm Even so, recent research suggests the unemployment rate is saying something important. It’s just that the message is a depressing one: America’s labour supply may be permanently stunted. If so that would mean that the economy is operating closer… Continue reading Has Employment Been Permanently Damaged?
The Economist – Buttonwood: The growth paradox Past economic growth does not predict future stockmarket returns But as Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School have pointed out in the past, there is no automatic link between economic growth per person and stockmarket returns. In their latest report for Credit… Continue reading Economic Growth Does NOT Equal Stock Market Returns
Newsmax – Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014 It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts. “We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is… Continue reading Stock Market Bears
Rolling Stone – Matt Taibbi: The Vampire Squid Strikes Again: The Mega Banks’ Most Devious Scam Yet Call it the loophole that destroyed the world. It’s 1999, the tail end of the Clinton years. While the rest of America obsesses over Monica Lewinsky, Columbine and Mark McGwire’s biceps, Congress is feverishly crafting what could yet… Continue reading Rolling Stone Chimes In On Big Banking
Bloomberg – Winter Storm Moves Into U.S. Northeast With Heavy Snow A winter storm that piled as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of snow and ice across the U.S. South spread into the Northeast with gusty winds, shutting government offices in Washington and blanketing streets for start of the morning commute. More than half… Continue reading Weather, Yellen And The Economy
The Financial Times – The Fed is not to blame for turmoil in emerging markets The Federal Reserve is causing heartburn for central bankers in emerging markets. Since 2008 the US central bank has been flooding capital markets with cheap money, forcing down yields on safe assets. Many investors scurried into places such as India… Continue reading Does The Fed Owe Anything To The Emerging Markets?
Markit – Bank of England ‘forward guidance’ boosting business investment The Bank’s policy of ‘forward guidance’ was generally found to have been well understood by the business community, with 73% of companies identifying the main thrust of the policy to be a pledge not to raise the Bank’s official interest rate until the unemployment rate… Continue reading Forward Guidance
St. Louis Federal Reserve – Daniel L. Thornton: Has QE Been Effective? Longer-term yields declined by relatively large amounts on days when the FOMC made specific QE announcements. However, the objective of QE has been to reduce long-term yields beyond the levels they would have reached without QE. The analysis presented here suggests that QE… Continue reading The Fed Disagrees With Itself
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – The Best Gauge of the Labor Market? M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach and Robert Rich at the New York Fed argue in a new blog post that long-term unemployment may not be a very reliable guide to the amount of slack in the labor market. The amount of labor… Continue reading Measuring Slack In The Labor Market
Zero Hedge (blog) – Jeff Gundlach Sells Apple; Warns High Yield Bonds “Most Over-Valued In History” The default cycle that should have occurred, given historical patterns of issuance cycles, has morphed (thanks to the Fed) into a refinancing cycle; but while DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach suggests that fundamentals are supportive, “the valuation of junk bonds as… Continue reading Corporate Bond Valuation