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The U.S. Stands Alone
March 18, 2024
Every recession or financial crisis changes an economy. The 2020 Covid shutdown/restart was no different. U.S. consumers abandoned savings for spending. The result is a "no-landing" economy and "sticky" inflation. This seems to be unique to the U.S.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 18, 2024
Today's topics include previewing the BoJ meeting, what would a BoJ hike mean for Yen carry trade?, the return of 'higher for longer', searching for the neutral rate, the economy has changed, government borrowing & bond market vigilantes, Shelton on the Fed's role in inflation's decline, commodities trading, and distressed office sales
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Cartoons
March 18, 2024
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The End Is in Sight for Japanese Yield Curve Control
March 15, 2024
The Bank of Japan is preparing to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. This move has been anticipated for some time, but risks remain as the last chunk of negative-yielding debt vanishes.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 15, 2024
Today's topics include how long can stocks' rally last?, don't count on money market cash to boost stocks, interest payment starting to bite for households, escaping a hard landing vs. no landing, another way to measure stock market concentration, recovering lost pandemic jobs, and triple witching
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Cartoons
March 15, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 14, 2024
Today's topics include stocks rallying despite falling rate cut expectations, profit margins, Yellen shuts door on era of ultra-low rates, private equity & cash, gold flows not following performance, a look at mortgage rates, oil supply & demand, and flight to dollar safety exists in stablecoins as well
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Cartoons
March 14, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 13, 2024
Today's topics include timing the rate cuts, more on yesterday's CPI release, will the Fed give any hints about the end of QT next week?, the ongoing bubble debate, cumulative price changes vs. year-over-year inflation, hedge funds are highly leveraged, the yield curve's effectiveness as a recession indicator, record dividend payouts in 2023, and regulating window dressing
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Cartoons
March 13, 2024
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Inflation Watch – Is Time Running Out for Rate Cuts This Year?
March 12, 2024
Year-over-year inflation came in slightly above expectations in February. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a fourth straight month. Time is slowly running out for data that supports a Fed rate cut this year, but fed funds traders continue to price in a June or July cut.