The Financial Times – Low growth – the new economic reality Until recently, the US was always the world’s “consumer of last resort”. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in the early-1970s and the subsequent huge increase in cross-border capital flows, the US easily absorbed more and more of the world’s… Continue reading The New Normal?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – S&P’s rise underpinned by borrowed money US stocks are being propelled to fresh highs by investors borrowing a record amount of money in a high stakes gamble that is raising concerns over the potential for a sharp correction in the five-year bull run. With the… Continue reading Margin Debt
Bloomberg.com – Fed Lifts Veil Slowly on Bank Oversight in Era of Transparency The Federal Reserve this month will take a step toward revealing more about its oversight of the financial system, an area where the central bank has yet to match the strides it has taken toward transparency in monetary policy. With the scheduled… Continue reading Bank Stress Tests To Be Published This Month
The Financial Times – Risk is greatest when there is no perception of risk Should the biggest fund management groups be regulated as systemically important financial groups, in the same way as the biggest global banks? The US Treasury’s Office of Financial Research has asked this question, and is inclined to answer “yes”. The fund… Continue reading Too Big To Fail: Money Managers
Zero Hedge (blog) – It Is Always Sunny In Chicago: Chicago PMI Slams Expectations, Rises From January In a “stunning” turn of events, Chicago, where the bulk of the polar vortex impact was felt in the past month, apparently experienced zero negative economic impact from, you know, the weather, after moments ago the Chicago PMI… Continue reading Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
Bloomberg.com – Stein Endorses Feroli Warning That Fed Risks New Market Tumult Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein endorsed a warning by economists that raising the main interest rate may cause a financial-market convulsion similar to the “tantrum” that occurred last year after the Fed said it was considering trimming its bond purchase program. “Whenever the… Continue reading Jeremy Stein Speaks
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Comment Yesterday Jim Bianco hosted a conference call titled “Weather or a Slowdown?” The handout, an audio replay, webcast replay and unedited notes from the conference call are below. [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=174″] Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/022714.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/022714.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /] Notes When the economic numbers show weakness,… Continue reading Weather or a Slowdown?
Zero Hedge (Blog) – Initial Weekly Claims Surge To Highest Of The Year According to the meteorologists interpreting last week’s initial claims report, it must have snowed a lot in the week ended February 22, because while no states had any numbers estimated, the initial claims for the past week jumped by 14K, to 348,000… Continue reading Revisiting Initial Claims
The Associated Press – Yellen: Fed monitoring recent weaker economic data Yellen says Fed is monitoring softer economic data to see if recent slowdown is temporary Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted Thursday that some recent economic data have pointed to weaker-than-expected gains in consumer spending and job growth. She said the Fed will be… Continue reading Yellen’s Testimony
CNBC – I don’t think spate of soft data will prompt me to revise my forecast: St. Louis Fed’s Bullard If the recent slowdown in the U.S. economy turns out to be more than just the weather, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Friday that he would still be unlikely revise his… Continue reading Bullard Speaks
MarketWatch.com – Why can’t the Fed predict recessions? 4 reasons Opinion: 2008 transcripts show inflation obsession, bias to sugarcoat Like many of us, the Fed relies on a flow of economic data. But what happens if the data aren’t accurate, reliable or timely? In August 2008, just before the financial crisis climaxed, most Fed policy… Continue reading Why The Federal Reserve Can’t Predict Recessions