The Wall Street Journal – Interview: Fed’s Dudley Says ‘Pretty High’ Threshold to Change Taper Path The central banker also said that now may be a good time for the Fed to take another look at guidance it currently offers that governs the potential timing of short-term interest rate hikes. Currently, the Fed says that… Continue reading Dudley On Tapering
Comment All the stories below are from the last week, most from the last 48 hours. The New York Daily News – Struggling electronics chain RadioShack to slash 1,100 stores amid sales slump RadioShack’s efforts to reboot are taking a toll. The electronics chain said on Tuesday it would shut down about a fifth of… Continue reading Brick & Mortar Bloodletting Week
Macroeconomic Advisers – MA’s yearly Fedspeak rankings: Who moved markets most? We examine the impact on the ten-year Treasury yield of FOMC participants’ speeches and FOMC communications in 2013. There were many opportunities for the FOMC to move the market last year. * In 2013, the market scrutinized FOMC communications for any hints on the… Continue reading Which Fed Head Should We Listen To?
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Draghi Says Deflation Danger Should Abate as Economy Revives European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled that deflation risks in the euro region are easing for now after new forecasts showed that inflation will approach their target by the end of 2016. “The news that has come… Continue reading The ECB Predicts 1.2% Growth
Bloomberg.com – Venezuela Opposition Limits Protest on Chavez Anniversary Venezuela’s opposition has scaled back protests that have killed 18 people in the past three weeks as government supporters marked the one-year anniversary of the death of former President Hugo Chavez. Police broke up barricades in eastern Caracas today and shot tear gas at several hundred… Continue reading Meanwhile, Outside The Ukraine
Value Walk – Seth Klarman: Investors Downplaying Risk “Never Turns Out Well” Seth Klarman then once again turned his sharp rhetorical knife to the academics that run the US Federal Reserve who seem to think that controlling free markets is a matter of communications policy. “The Fed, in its ongoing attempt to tamp down market… Continue reading Seth Klarman Speaks
MSN/Money – Why the Dow could hit 26,000 by 2016 New claims of a looming crash make no sense. Here’s why the market will soar in the next 2 years. Market observer Harry Dent claims that the Dow Jones industrials will rally to 17,000 within the next few weeks — before it disastrously plummets to… Continue reading DJIA 26,000
Business Insider – GOLDMAN SACHS ELEVATOR HAS LOST HIS BOOK DEAL To everyone eagerly awaiting the Goldman Sachs Elevator book, “Straight to Hell: True Tales of Deviance and Excess in the World of Investment Banking,” our sincerest apologies. Simon and Schuster has canceled its deal with former Citi banker John LeFevre. He was notified today… Continue reading The Elevator Goes Down
FT Alphaville – Why the new shoeshine boy trade is shorting volatility Crowded trade alert. Chris Cole, of volatility fund Artemis Capital, has an insightful piece in the latest edition of the CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly warning about one of the most popular trades of recent times: the shorting of volatility via Vix ETPs.… Continue reading Shorting Volatility
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Comment If economists are to be believed, winter weather has been the driving force of the economy over the last few months. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this winter’s payroll reports versus estimates with an eye on the weather. December Payrolls On January 10, 2014 the December non-farm payroll report showed… Continue reading Economists Say “Weather” But Do They Act On Weather?
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment On January 1st, 1.2 million people’s emergency benefits expired under the current budget agreement. By law, anyone currently receiving these benefits must be actively searching for employment. That means these people are counted among the roughly 11 million unemployed as part of the labor force. Some argued when… Continue reading Will The Participation Rate And The Unemployment Rate Collapse Tomorrow?