The Washington Post – The problem with modern polling, in one chart Stryker’s conclusion: Pollsters need to start including more cellphone respondents in their surveys, post-haste. He recommends at least 15 percent of samples should be comprised of cell-only voters to accurately reflect the low-turnout 2014 midterm electorate, and an even higher percentage of the… Continue reading The Problem With Modern Polling
The Financial Times – China’s financial distress turns all too visible Country’s economic change will have deflationary consequences Investors have a lot to worry about without cause to fret about China, but now they have that too. Trend growth is slowing down, and markets have been shaken up by the actions of the People’s Bank… Continue reading China
Real Time Economics – U.S. CEOs Expect Slow Economic Growth, Scant Hiring Chief executives at major U.S. companies are forecasting another year of tepid economic expansion and limited payroll growth, underscoring the recovery’s slow pace. A quarterly survey released Tuesday by the Business Roundtable, a Washington trade group representing big-company CEOs, said they expect gross… Continue reading CEOs/Insiders Bearish On U.S. Economy And Their Own Companies
Value Walk – Is China’s Economy About Ready To Nosedive? The government of China released a wide range of information regarding the state of the Chinese economy. Unfortunately, most of the indicators released were weak and now many are beginning to question whether or not the government will reach its goal of a 7.5% growth… Continue reading Is China’s Economy In Trouble?
Real-Time Economics – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Links Low Rates to “Persistent Headwinds” in Economy Take note of the fact that central bankers are talking a lot lately about the impact of “persistent headwinds” against the economy. They are making an argument that is central to view that they should keep interest rates unusually low even… Continue reading The Fed Meets Today, Decides Tomorrow
BBC News – Robert Preston: Russia ‘planned Wall Street bear raid’ There is a cynicism in the relationship between Russia and the US, being played out in the Crimean crisis, which is deep, rooted in history and shows that the triumph of capitalism over communism wasn’t the end of the power game between these two… Continue reading Russia’s Bear Raid
The Wall Street Journal – Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops Costs Pinch Consumers, Companies Still Grappling With Sluggish Economic Recovery Surging prices for food staples from coffee to meat to vegetables are driving up the cost of groceries in the U.S., pinching consumers and companies that are still grappling… Continue reading Rising Food Prices
The Huffington Post – Mohamed A. El-Erian: Economic Realities Can De-Escalate Ukraine Crisis So what could a compromise look like? It would probably be anchored by two things: First, the West would tolerate substantive and pervasive Russian influence over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine (including by acknowledging that Russia has a “legitimate interest”) while… Continue reading El-Erian Is Back!
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Strong Rally; Weak Volume While Monday’s rally has shown few signs of easing up, trading volume has remained quite low throughout the session. Barring some extraordinary jump the final two hours of trading, NYSE Composite volume is on pace to finish among the lowest full-trading days of the year. Monday’s trading… Continue reading Where’s The Conviction?
The Financial Times – London pension body sells entire stock of UK gilts The influential London Pension Fund Authority has sold virtually its entire portfolio of UK gilts and swaps, raising the prospect of further sell-offs across the city. Edmund Truell, founder of private equity house Duke Street Capital and chairman of the £4.8bn LPFA… Continue reading Pensions
Barron’s – Jeremy Grantham: Learning to Live With a Stock Bubble Famed strategist Jeremy Grantham views the market as 65% overvalued, but still sees some pockets of attractive investments. Barron’s: How frothy does the U.S. stock market look? Grantham: There are two good standards for a bubble. One is boring statistics, and the other is… Continue reading Today’s Word: Froth