Project Syndicate – Mohamed A. El-Erian: The Democratic Disruption of Finance There seems to be no limit to the exciting possibilities that come from combining technical innovations, the Internet, and social media. It is a phenomenon that has been revolutionizing journalism and entertainment; and, by helping to overcome coordination challenges, it has also had political… Continue reading How Finance Is Being Disrupted
CNBC – Einhorn: Tech bubble brewing, shorting momentums David Einhorn has a clear warning for technology investors: we’re in a bubble. “Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years,” Greenlight Capital said in an investor letter Tuesday. “What is uncertain is how much further the bubble… Continue reading Einhorn Sees A Tech Bubble
Comment As the table below shows, 106 of the S&P 500 companies have reported through this morning, of which 70% beat estimates. The table shows the beat rate after the first 100 companies have reported each earnings cycle. The average since 2009 is 72%, so the current beat rate is slightly below average thus far.… Continue reading Earnings Season Update
Comment The table below is Bloomberg’s monthly survey of economists. See the last line. It shows 67 economists were surveyed for April and 100% were predicting higher 10-year yields in the next 6 months. Note that the previous three months were 97%, 95% and 97% respectively. Literally there is maybe one economist in the United… Continue reading 100% Are Bearish On Treasuries!
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The chart above shows three series: Red = Conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates (mortgages less than 417,00 eligible to be sold to the GSEs) Blue = Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage rates (mortgages more than 417,000 not eligible to be sold to the GSEs) Green = Spread between the… Continue reading Jumbo Versus Conforming Mortgages
<Click on chart for larger image> 24/7 Wall Street – North Dakota Unemployment Rate at 2.6% Attribute it to the benefits of shale. North Dakota, much of which sits atop of the Bakken Formation, one of the largest natural gas formations in the world, has a nationwide low unemployment rate of 2.6%. The number is particularly… Continue reading Where Jobs Go Begging
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US corporate bonds outshine juicier junk US corporate bonds are finally having their moment in the sun, after years spent in the shadow of better performing and higher-yielding junk debt, and equities . A strong performance for long-dated high quality bonds so far this year… Continue reading Investment Grade vs. High Yield
The Wall Street Journal – Federal Plans That Forgive Student Debt Skyrocket Government officials are trying to rein in increasingly popular federal programs that forgive some student debt, amid rising concerns over the plans’ costs and the possibility they could encourage colleges to push tuition even higher. Enrollment in the plans—which allow students to rack… Continue reading Student Debt
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Hedge-Fund Assets Hit New Record In First Quarter, Again Despite cascading losses this month for many hedge funds that bet on stocks, hedge fund assets overall hit a new record high of assets under management in the first quarter, industry tracker HFR said Monday, marking the seventh-consecutive quarter that the industry… Continue reading Hedge Funds Continue To Bring In Assets Despite Performance
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Barclays to Exit Most Commodities Trading in Bid to Bolster Profit Move Comes As Company Prepares To Tell Investors How It Will Reshape Investment Bank Barclays PLC plans to sell or exit most of its commodities businesses as part of an effort to shrink… Continue reading Two Views On Commodities
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Price of Gas in U.S. Rises as Refiners Export More to Other Countries Nation’s Gasoline Stockpiles Are at Lowest Point This Time of Year Since 2011 Drivers in the U.S. are facing rising gasoline prices ahead of summer-vacation season, just as refiners here are… Continue reading Gas Prices