The Wall Street Journal – Asia’s Export Engine Sputters Economic Expansion Threatened in Four Major Countries Not this time. Exports jumped in 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis. But they have slumped since and now are barely in positive territory, even as the U.S. economy has stirred back to life. This sluggishness… Continue reading Sputtering In Asia (China)
The Wall Street Journal – GDP Slows to Crawl in 1st Quarter, Up 0.1% Growth of Goods and Services Hurt by Weather, Weak Exports The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter to one of the weakest paces of the five-year recovery as the frigid winter appeared to have curtailed business investment and weakness overseas… Continue reading Consensus Forecasts For Economists, This Time Is Different (We Promise)
USA Today – Weather report: Why 0.1% GDP growth didn’t crush stocks The market reaction to the worst GDP print since the final quarter of 2012 could be summed up as follows: It’s the weather, stupid! Wall Street views the sluggish growth number as old news. Investors are basically giving the economy a pass in… Continue reading Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
The Wall Street Journal- Jon Hisenrath: Grand Central: Fed History Lesson Worth Recalling One year ago, Federal Reserve officials snuck an obscure line into the policy statement that followed their two-day policy meeting on Apr. 30 and May 1. “The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate… Continue reading What To Watch For In The Fed Statement Today
The Financial Times – A ripple of hope in a stagnant world Excess supply and low interest rates go hand in hand and could put the recovery at risk Why are real interest rates so low? And will they stay this low for long? If they do – as it seems they might – the… Continue reading Excess Supply And Low Interest Rates
PIMCO – Bill Gross: Achoo! At PIMCO, we believe that this focus on the future “neutral” policy rate is the critical key to unlocking value in all asset markets. If future cash returns are 2% (our belief) instead of 4%, then other assets such as stocks and real estate must be assumed to be more… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
The Financial Times – Lending crackdown sends US loans into the shadows Financial regulators are cracking the whip on some of the biggest US banks, clamping down on risky lending to highly indebted companies. The move has had an unintended consequence, pushing billions of dollars of lending into the more lightly regulated “shadow banking system”.… Continue reading Leveraged Loans
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Note in the chart above that the May through September period are among the worst moths to own stocks on a seasonal basis. While we would never recommend trading off such a simple strategy, this chart is always popular in the press around this time of the year.… Continue reading Sell In May Go Away
Zero Hedge – Elliott’s Paul Singer On How It All Will End: “Badly, We Guess” Those who think the scenario above is an exaggeration should ask themselves the following question: After decades of advancements in human knowledge and purported innovations in the global financial system, why did 2008 turn into the worst financial crisis since… Continue reading Paul Singer On How It Will All End
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Cold weather seen temporarily slowing US economy U.S. economic growth likely braked sharply in the first quarter due partly to an unusually cold and disruptive winter, but activity already appears to be bouncing back. Gross domestic product probably grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate, according to… Continue reading Blaming The Weather
Foreign Policy – Exclusive: Meet the Fed’s First Line of Defense Against Cyber Attacks Inside the secret Fed cybersecurity unit keeping trillions of dollars safe from hackers. The NIRT’s primary operations center is in a 400,000 square-foot facility in New Jersey, called the East Rutherford Operations Center, a short drive from the New York Stock… Continue reading How The Fed Keeps Trillions Of Dollars Safe From Hackers
Forbes.com – Is U.S. Hyperinflation Imminent? The Fed is the primary catalyst for inflation. Moreover, it actually attempts to create a low to moderate level of inflation. Why does the Fed want inflation? Because inflation is a signal of a growing economy. Additionally, if inflation is too high, the economy will suffer. If it’s too… Continue reading U.S. Hyperinflation Talk