The Wall Street Journal – ECB Ready to Act Fast Low Inflation The European Central Bank is ready to loosen monetary policy further to prevent the euro zone from succumbing to an extended period of low inflation, its vice president said on Thursday. “We are determined to act swiftly if required and don’t rule out… Continue reading More Stimulus In Europe?
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Low Volatility – When Have We Seen This Before? World Growth Remains Below Average of “C-” Recession Dating Credit Spreads vs. Stock Prices Updated Look At Credit Spreads Small Cap Under Performance Earnings Update Earnings Update – 2 Earnings Update – 3 Earnings Update – 4… Continue reading Charts of the Week
Businessweek – Trading Patterns Point to Leaks Ahead of Federal Reserve Announcements A research paper has found “robust evidence” that some traders have been getting early news of U.S. Federal Reserve rate announcements and then trading on it during the Fed’s media lockup. The paper detects abnormally large price movements and imbalances in buy and… Continue reading Are Federal Reserve Announcements Leaked Early?
Comment The chart above shows the current first and second quarter consensus GDP forecasts from a survey of economists. After revisions, this group expects Q1 GDP to be close to -0.4% (from +0.1%) and Q2 to be close to 3.3%. These forecasts would put GDP at roughly 1.4% or 1.5% for the first half of… Continue reading GDP Forecasts
The New York Sun – The Dwindling Fed The Federal Reserve, for the first time in its 100-year history, is on the verge of operating with just three governors, the New York Times is reporting this morning. It says that the “dwindling of its board” is “straining the Fed’s ability to manage its complex responsibilities.”… Continue reading Openings At The Federal Reserve
The Financial Times – US small-caps fall raises bull run doubts It has paid to be small in Wall Street’s five-year stock market bull run. Now, though, with the S&P 500 in record territory and trading at the 1,900 level for the first time, it is bigger companies that are rewarding investors. After notably outperforming… Continue reading More On Small-Cap Stock Underperformance
The Financial Times – Robin Harding: Yellen policy on rates needs clarifying Janet Yellen’s most important policy change since taking over at the US Federal Reserve is also the one she has least explained. It is an omission that says a lot about her challenge in the years ahead, as theoretical concerns about “secular stagnation”… Continue reading The Federal Reserve’s Policy Need Clarifying
MarketWatch.com – Why you can beat most billionaire hedge fund managers Year-to-date, the composite hedge-fund index put together by Hedge Fund Research Inc. is up just 0.9%, trailing a 2.6% return for the S&P 500 (including dividends) and a 3% return for the Barclays Capital Government/Credit Bond Index over the same stretch. Lack and other critics… Continue reading Exploding Hedge Fund Assets
The Wall Street Journal – Fannie, Freddie Regulator Signals Broad Shift in Housing Policy Mr. Watt’s first steps are being heavily scrutinized because bipartisan legislation to overhaul the firms appears unlikely to advance in Congress this year. Meanwhile, the companies have now returned more money to the Treasury—the amount will rise to around $213 billion… Continue reading Regulation
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – Corporate bond rally is next to bust, some fear A growing group of investors and analysts are souring on the corporate bond market, preparing for a reversal in an asset class that has benefited tremendously from investor dollars hunting for yield. On Monday, Swiss banking giant UBS… Continue reading Corporate Bonds
Liberty Street Economics – Just Released: Young Student Loan Borrowers Remained on the Sidelines of the Housing Market in 2013 Despite an 11 percent house price recovery over the course of 2013 and an increase in overall mortgage debt, thirty-year-olds with and without student loans continued to retreat from the housing market. Further, student borrowers… Continue reading How Student Loan Debt Is Hurting The Housing Market