The Wall Street Journal – Fed Survey: A Third of Americans Say They’re Worse Off Post-Recession More American households say they are worse off rather than better five years after the recession, a new Federal Reserve survey found. The report, released for the first time on Thursday, found 34% of households said they were “somewhat… Continue reading Perceptions Of The Recovery
The Economist – Presidents and growth: Timing is everything Since the second world war the economy has done better under Democratic presidents, who have overseen more job creation and higher stockmarket returns than Republican leaders. During this time the economy has grown about 1.8 percentage points faster when a Democrat occupies the White House (see… Continue reading Political Alignment And Economic Growth … Also Luck?
The Economist – Practice makes imperfect Even experienced fund managers don’t beat the market The paper examined the records of 2,846 American mutual funds between the start of 1996 and the end of 2008, overseen by 1,825 managers (some looked after more than one fund). Turnover was high; fewer than a quarter of the managers… Continue reading How Money Managers Out-Perform … Luck?
The Wall Street Journal – WSJ Survey: Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3% Jump in Business Spending Seen as Key to Potential Breakout The U.S. economy looks set to steadily accelerate after a weather-pummeled first-half crawl, but the most upbeat economists in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly forecasting survey say the business sector holds… Continue reading What Economic Growth Will Look Like In Second Half Of 2014
The Wall Street Journal – Bright Lights of Finance Head to Low-Key Camp The pack of wilderness guides huddled outside Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, last Friday morning knew how to identify countless fish and birds, trap bears and even build canoes. Unlike those in the rest of the state, though, they also… Continue reading Camp Kotok
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Comment Yesterday Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV discussing earnings and the economy. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews click here.
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since 2006 New applications for unemployment benefits plunged last week, reaching an 8½-year low and offering the latest signs of strength in the labor market. Initial claims for jobless aid, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 19,000… Continue reading Initial Claims Seasonality
Tim Duy’s Fed Watch – Fed Hawks Squawk How much leeway does Fed Chair Janet Yellen have in her campaign to hold interest rates low for a considerable period after asset purchases end later this year? If you listen to Fed hawks, you would believe that she is quickly running out of room. Dallas Federal… Continue reading Views Within The FOMC
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – U.S. Exports to Russia Plummet 34% Amid Escalating Sanctions Battle The escalating U.S. sanctions battle against Russia appears to be taking a toll on trade with the country, with June data showing both sides of the ledger falling as Washington ratcheted up the financial pressure on Moscow. U.S. Commerce… Continue reading Russian Sanctions
RealClearPolitics – Seven House Races to Watch This Fall Campaigns for the U.S. Senate are sucking up most of the political oxygen this year. And rightfully so: After November, the upper chamber could change from Democratic control to Republican. House races, on the other hand, don’t appear to be all that significant as Democrats stand… Continue reading The Upcoming Election For House Seats
Bloomberg.com – Bond Liquidity Falls 70% in Europe as Sales Soar Bond dealers made money manager Gary Kirk’s job much more difficult when he tried to sell debt securities at the end of the first half. After they gave him “excuse after excuse” he gave up. “It was way more difficult than it should have… Continue reading Credit Market Liquidity