Oregon Office of Economic Analysis – Graph of the Week: Squaring Fed Policy The following compares the Fed’s own forecasts for nominal GDP (actually real GDP + PCE) on a 2 year ahead basis. Most forecasters, including the Fed, have performed relatively well on a 1 year ahead basis but keep calling for an improvement “next… Continue reading Fed Policy
The Economist – Caught out Markets have defied expectations in 2014, leaving investors with few options THIS was supposed to be the year when normal service resumed in the global economy and markets. As the recovery picked up steam, shares were expected to continue their rally and government bonds were projected to lose value (which… Continue reading The Global Markets In 2014
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Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 BST), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us today as we discuss: Fed Policy: The Fed wants to end asset purchases ASAP because it is worried about financial… Continue reading Big Picture Themes
The Wall Street Journal – In Stock Market, Anxiety Can Be Good Thing “When everyone thinks things look bad, that is when you want to buy,” said Savita Subramanian, chief U.S. stock strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “It is when everyone is positive that you want to sell.” Historically, markets typically fall apart… Continue reading Climbing A Wall Of Worry
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Leaky repo deals present new concerns Beneath the surface of the $12tn US Treasury market resides the pipes of the repurchase, or “repo”, market, where government securities are regularly lent out and borrowed between various investors and dealers. Such short-term transactions help smooth trading across… Continue reading Repo Fails On The Rise
The Wall Street Journal – Fed Officials Suggest Limiting Banks’ Repo Exposure Senior Federal Reserve officials said the “repo” markets that play a fundamental role in moving money around the financial system remain unstable, raising the specter of further limits on big banks’ role in the markets. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren… Continue reading Regulating The Repo Market
The Washington Post – Abenomics has only worked because foreigners think it will Now, a not-so-long time ago—in 2012, to be exact—Japan finally got serious about ending its decades-long economic malaise. Specifically, it said its central bank would print as much money as it took to get prices rising again, and with them, hopefully, growth.… Continue reading Foreigners Enjoy Abenomics More Than The Japanese Do
Bloomberg.com – Germany May Start Reducing Bonds Outstanding as Soon as 2015 Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government plans to start reducing the amount of German sovereign bonds outstanding from as early as next year as it seeks to deliver on a 2013 election promise to stop adding new debt. Gross federal borrowing will drop to 189.4… Continue reading German Bund Issuance
Bloomberg.com – Stagflation Stalks Abenomics Maybe it’s time to stop dismissing the risk of stagflation in Japan. I’ve raised this risk a couple of times during the last 12 months as inflation rose without commensurate increases in wages or productivity. But yesterday’s ugly gross domestic product report suggests it’s a clear and present threat to… Continue reading Stagflation In Japan
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Don’t Ignore Questions Retail Sales Numbers Are Raising You can’t blame this one on the snow. Retail sales in the U.S. flat lined in July, “virtually unchanged” from a month ago is how the Census Bureau described them, and up 3.7% from a year ago. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.1%.… Continue reading Deciphering The Disappointing Retail Sales Number