Comment Last week we highlighted the effect the oil boom in North Dakota is having on the U.S. economy. The graphic above highlights this same idea in yet another way. CME Group’s chief economist Blu Putnam offered his guess on the oil boom’s effect on GDP: “Taking a very broad view of the indirect stimulus… Continue reading The Oil Boom’s Effect On The U.S. Economy
The Wall Street Journal – Big Investors Snap Up Junk Bonds Large institutions are snapping up U.S. junk bonds, taking advantage of a price slide triggered by an exodus of individual investors. Many big money managers say they remain bullish on these risky corporate bonds despite concerns that the market is overheated and worries that… Continue reading Junk Bonds
CNBC – A controversial theory is starting to scare the Fed Is there something seriously wrong with the economy? It’s a scary prospect, and a concern that’s gotten louder and louder over the past year. In economic circles, it goes by the alliterative name of “secular stagnation.” And it’s a phrase that Fed watchers are… Continue reading Secular Stagnation
The Wall Street Journal – Credit Default Swaps Near Revamp After Banco Espírito Santo Snafu The roughly two-decades-old market in credit default swaps is supposed to provide investors with a backstop that pays out when bond issuers default. But a string of European banking busts, most recently that of Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo, has… Continue reading A Perfect Example Of The Inherent Problems With CDS
<Click on chart for larger image> The New York Times – Robert Shiller: The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations The United States stock market looks very expensive right now. The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop — is hovering at a worrisome level. I wrote with some concern about the high ratio… Continue reading Stock Market Valuation
The Economist – Brace yourself Republicans are likely to win the Senate, but they are not riding a wave The mid-term elections this year that will decide which party controls the Senate will partly be a referendum on the president. But the quality of individual candidates matters, too. The wave that Republicans hoped might follow… Continue reading The Battle For The Senate
The Financial Times – China property prices fall a third straight month China’s property prices fell for a third straight month in July, as demand wanes and lenders propping up the market pull back. New home prices across 70 cities tracked by the government fell by an average 0.9 per cent between June and July,… Continue reading Chinese Housing
The Financial Times – Draghi is running out of legal ways to fix the euro The ECB is failing to deliver on its inflation target not because it has run out of instruments but because it has based its policy on a poorly performing economic model. The ECB never expects inflation to deviate from the… Continue reading The ECB
The Economist – How long will the expansion last? NEWS that America’s economy grew at a brisk annualised rate of 4% in the second quarter was greeted with relief. After a puzzling first-quarter contraction, growth has returned, though the recovery remains the weakest since the second world war. As of June, the expansion is now… Continue reading Gauging The Length Of The Expansion
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Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled Big Picture Themes. To listen to the replay, watch the webcast or view handout, click on the links below. Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/081414.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=199″] [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/081414.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /]
Comment The table below shows the latest survey of economists as conducted by Bloomberg. 67 economists were surveyed last week and 100% (all 67) expect higher 10-year yields by the end of Q1 2015. As of this writing the 10-year was 2.39%. Of the 67 economists surveyed in August, the range of estimates for the… Continue reading 100% Bearishness Remains!