<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bull Bets to Lowest Since June After gold’s rally in the first half of the year beat gains for commodities, equities and Treasuries, bullion is back to being out of favor with investors. Hedge funds cut their bullish gold bets for the fourth… Continue reading Gold Speculators
The Financial Times – Stephen Foley: US midterms are set to reawaken political risk Investors have been spoiled by the relative calm on Capitol Hill since last year’s shutdown Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood. After almost a full year of not having to worry about shenanigans in the US Congress, investors are about… Continue reading Mid-Term Elections
Barron’s – Gene Epstein: Work’s for Squares The unemployment rate may be falling, but with more people than ever out of the workforce, the news is bad and getting worse. WHEN IT COMES TO the millions of people receiving Social Security disability income, however, it is fairly certain that virtually all of them are outside… Continue reading The Decline Of Work?
MarketWatch.com – History made as euro-zone overnight borrowing costs turn negative The euro overnight index average, or Eonia — a measure of borrowing costs in the euro zone calculated by the European Central Bank — turned negative for the first time ever on Thursday, fixing at minus 0.004%, according to news reports.Why is it noteworthy?… Continue reading Negative European Rates
CNBC – Jim O’Neill: Why the Fed should always be in focus There are many risks to the world economy and financial markets. While some of them are common to both, some are only relevant for the markets — and they might be a consequence of economic improvement, or at least perceptions of them. As… Continue reading Yes The Fed Matters
The Wall Street Journal – Labor Day Gas Prices Lowest Since 2010 Labor Day is a huge travel weekend, but fortunately this year won’t cost so much in gas. U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline on Monday was $3.45/gallon, the lowest price for a Monday before Labor Day since 2010, according the the U.S.… Continue reading Gas Prices
Comment Yesterday Jim was on CNBC Asia talking about the Geopolitical events and markets. To view the interview click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. In the interview we talked about why markets are not responding to geopolitical events, as we explained last month: With a minimal impact… Continue reading Why Geopolitical Events Do Not Affect Markets
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Job Index a Year Away From Normalcy An index of labor market conditions watched by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is on track to return to long-term norms in the second half of 2015 – about when many Fed officials say they expect to start raising short-term… Continue reading More Reasons To Never Raise Rates
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the chart above continues to show, 2014 (thick black line) continues to be one of the best years ever to be long the 30-year Treasury as it approaches a 20% total return year-to-date. The stories below are more frustrated bears, which is virtually everyone, trying to explain… Continue reading Bonds Bears Trying To Understand Why They Missed One Of The Biggest Rallies In History
GaveKal – The Modern Day Widow Maker Trade is to Short Treasuries As treasury yields plunge again today to new 1-year lows (the 10 and 30-year treasury bond yields are both down 3bps to 2.33% and 3.07%, respectively), we are reminded of a popular trade over the last decade to short Japanese government bonds, which… Continue reading Short JGBs, The Widow Maker
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Treasury Bond Rally Sends Yield to 15-Month Low on Demand Treasuries advanced, pushing 30-year bond yields to a 15-month low, as the collapse of yields in Europe prompted investors to reach for higher-yielding U.S. government bonds. An auction of $35 billion in five-year notes drew the highest… Continue reading Bond Prices Higher On Rising Volume