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The Labor Market Conditions Index
October 7, 2014
Forbes – The Fed’s Important New Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) LMCI not perfectly correlated negatively with unemployment, incorporating other elements of the labor market Carola Binder in a recent post on her economics blog astutely points out that correlation of 12-month changes in LMCI with 12-month changes in the unemployment rate is -0.96, suggesting… Continue reading The Labor Market Conditions Index
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Inflation Expectations
October 7, 2014
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – US inflation measure proves headache for Fed The US inflation market has an unpleasant message for US policy makers – the stimulus of quantitative easing has waned and another round may be required. October marks the formal completion of quantitative easing, or QE, by the… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
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Who Is Janet Yellen?
October 7, 2014
Bloomberg.com – The World’s Most Powerful Central Banker: Janet Who? While world financial markets hang on her every word, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen isn’t making much of an impression yet on ordinary Americans. Just 24 percent of respondents correctly identified Janet Yellen as the chair of the U.S. central bank in a survey by… Continue reading Who Is Janet Yellen?
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Gold vs. Bitcoin
October 7, 2014
The Telegraph – Bitcoin will become the new gold’ Virtual currency Bitcoin is approaching a tipping point, the Institute of Directors heard today at its annual convention Speaking at the Institute of Directors’ annual convention in the Royal Albert Hall, Jon Matonis, executive director of the Bitcoin Foundation claimed that “When it clicks, we’re going… Continue reading Gold vs. Bitcoin
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Corporate Profits By Sector
October 7, 2014
Mckinsey – What’s behind this year’s buoyant market Here’s how a tepid economy and rising interest rates support a strong stock market. The key to understanding the current record-high value of the S&P 500 is not the P/E multiple but the high level of profit margins—and that, too, requires some examination. Major shifts in the… Continue reading Corporate Profits By Sector
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German Recession Fears?
October 7, 2014
The Financial Times – Plunge in industrial production stokes German recession fears German industrial output suffered its biggest monthly decline in more than five years in August, raising fears that Europe’s biggest economy might be heading for recession and prompting renewed concern about the economic health of the eurozone. Output plunged 4.0 per cent from… Continue reading German Recession Fears?
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Obama Struggles
October 7, 2014
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Confidence in Obama on economy sinks to new low The CNBC survey found the president’s economic leadership lacking majority support of every single demographic group, including only 45 percent of Democrats saying they are extremely or quite confident in the president when it comes to the economy.… Continue reading Obama Struggles
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The Battle For House Seats
October 7, 2014
The Financial Times – Mohamed El-Erian: US midterm elections offer limited prospect for economic change Regardless of the election outcome, there are only limited prospects for bold economic leadership out of Capitol Hill. Indeed, the main question is not whether the midterms will change the gridlock in Washington that undermines economic growth, accentuates inequalities, and… Continue reading The Battle For House Seats
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Reaching For Yield
October 7, 2014
The Financial Times – Alberto Gallo: High risk bonds have further to fall End of Fed QE, low liquidity and crowded trades spell danger Searching for yield and buying risky assets have been the name of the game for bond portfolio managers since the crisis. The riskier the bonds, the better the performance: high yield… Continue reading Reaching For Yield
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Cartoons
October 7, 2014
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Eurozone GDP
October 6, 2014
Washington Center for Equitable Growth – Joe Stiglitz vs. the Austerity Zombies: (Late) Friday Focus for September 26, 2014 The long recession is lowering Europe’s potential growth. Young people who should be accumulating skills are not…. Meanwhile, Germany is forcing other countries to follow policies that are weakening their economies–and their democracies…. Privatization of pensions,… Continue reading Eurozone GDP