The Financial Times – Robin Harding: Unpredictable midterms show the limits of election forecasting Models are all based on the same publicly available information Tuesday will be a night of gloom or glory for US politicians, depending on whether they win or lose midterm congressional elections. Forecasters have already predicted every result, but such a… Continue reading Election Day
The Financial Times – Tracy Alloway: Copy trading could flatter to deceive For its supporters this “social trading” is democratising the world of investing by reducing the traditional disparity in trading resources between large and small investors. For critics, this increasing accessibility opens up huge risks for uninformed traders, emboldened to bet big without performing… Continue reading Twitter And The Markets
Project Syndicate – Kenneth Rogoff: Celebrity Central Bankers What, then, is going on? I would argue that, in addition to all of the factors listed above, three further considerations should be noted. For starters, the public perception that central bankers are omniscient makes them an attractive whipping boy for politicians. Moreover, the digital revolution in… Continue reading Celebrity Central Bankers
Bloomberg – Clive Cook: What Have Economists Ever Done for Us? Economic ideas also helped reshape the energy and telecommunications industries. Again, the results have been profound. Decontrol of oil and gas prices set the scene for the technological revolution that is making the U.S. self-sufficient in energy and has lowered costs across the economy.… Continue reading Economists
Janus Capital – Bill Gross: The Trouble with Porosity and Prosperity Such is the dilemma facing central bankers (and supposedly fiscal authorities) in 2014 and beyond: How to create inflation. They’ve made a damn fine attempt at it – have they not? Four trillion dollars in the U.S., two trillion U.S. dollar equivalents in Japan,… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
FactSet – Earnings Insight For October 31, 2014 Valuation: The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 15.5. Th is P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s closing price (1994.65) and forward 12-month EPS es timate ($128.53) During the month of October, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter. The… Continue reading An Earnings Season: Mediocre Revenues Saved By Buybacks
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – U.S. Inflation Undershoots Fed’s 2% Target for 29th Consecutive Month Price gains remained subdued across the U.S. economy in September, keeping a key gauge of inflation below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for a 29th consecutive month. The price index for personal consumption… Continue reading U.S. Inflation Remains Low
The Wall Street Journal – Voters Favor GOP by Slim Margin for Control of Congress, WSJ/NBC News Poll Shows Republicans hold a narrow edge on the question of which party likely voters want to control Congress, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds, signaling that the GOP heads into Tuesday’s balloting with a breeze,… Continue reading Final Midterm Election Update: Everyone Predicts A Republican Senate
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – U.S. Gas Prices to Fall Below $3 a Gallon This Weekend The average gallon of gasoline will cost less than $3 this weekend for the first time in nearly four years. The national average price of regular gas has been above $3 per… Continue reading Gas Prices Now Under $3/Gallon
CNBC – Jeff Cox: Markets are still addicted to money printing Friday’s stock surge provides yet another reminder that when it comes to moving the market, there’s nothing like a little old-fashioned money printing. What waits on the other side—asset bubbles, inflation, the prospects for still greater wealth disparity—remains, of course, an issue for another… Continue reading Addicted To QE
Comment Last week we noted, using other charts, that the Chinese economy is not looking good. The charts above support this thesis.