Financial Sense – Black Friday Hindenburg Omen Suggests Near-Term Caution While the market does not enter a crash or bear market after every cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals, every market crash or bear market has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. That is similar to the Wall Street axiom that the stock market has predicted… Continue reading The Hindenburg Omen Makes A Comeback
Comment Now that 492 of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, we know that roughly 75% beat their earnings estimates. This can be seen in the chart below. The second chart shows the growth rate of earnings. Analysts will now begin to focus their attention on next quarter’s earnings season, both offering and revising… Continue reading One Final Q3 Earnings Update
Reuters – Stock-Picking Fund Managers Are Having Their Worst Year In 3 Decades Stock-picking fund managers are testing their investors’ patience with some of the worst investment returns in decades. With bad bets on financial shares, missed opportunities in technology stocks and too much cash on the sidelines, roughly 85 percent of active large-cap stock… Continue reading Stock Picking Continues To Do Poorly
The Wall Street Journal – Bond Funds Load Up on Cash Portfolio Managers Gird for Volatility Amid Expected Rate Increase Large bond funds are holding the most cash since the financial crisis as portfolio managers brace for potential price swings and unruly trading ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate increase in 2015. The top… Continue reading Cash On The Sidelines
The Wall Street Journal – Moody’s Downgrades Japan’s Credit Rating Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Japan’s government debt rating Monday, highlighting the challenges facing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he tries to stoke economic growth. In explaining its move, Moody’s cited “heightened uncertainty” over Japan’s ability to cut its fiscal deficit after Mr. Abe decided last… Continue reading Moody’s Downgrades Japan
The Financial Times – Mohamed El-Erian: Equity investors should heed message from commodities and bonds Hard to find reasons for divergence between asset class prices It is that season again when commentators review the year’s developments and what they imply for next year. A big surprise is the extent to which record equity prices have… Continue reading The Divergence Between Stock & Commodity Returns
The Wall Street Journal – Daniel Yergin: The Global Shakeout From Plunging Oil New supply—rather than demand—is dominating the market, and OPEC has been caught by surprise. The decision by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countrieson Thursday not to cut production reflects a profound shift in the world oil market. The demand… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply & Demand
Yahoo Finance – Doug Kass: Deja Vu All Over Again In the prior two bubbles and booms, prices were extended and exaggerated by borrowed funds or excess liquidity. Subsequently, the bubbles’ bursting of falling prices were exaggerated by the calling-in of the credit-financed liquidity It is no different today. Credit availability is unprecedented, and activism… Continue reading Signs Of Excessive Optimism
The Wall Street Journal – Swiss Voters Reject Initiative on Central-Bank Gold Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected an initiative on Sunday that would have forced the country’s central bank to hold one-fifth of its assets in gold, a move that would have eroded its ability to conduct monetary policy. Citing projections from results in 19 of… Continue reading Swiss Vote On Gold Holdings Falls Short
Crain’s Chicago Business – Will this be the end of trading pits at CME? What little action remains on CME Group’s downtown trading floor emanates mainly from one corner: the eurodollar options pit. The trading floor, with 35 pits covering nearly 2 acres, once was the heart of the world’s futures market, with screaming, gesticulating… Continue reading The Rise Of The Machines, Trading Pits Version
The Wall Street Journal – ‘Black Friday’ Fades as Weekend Retail Sales Sink Annual Four-Day Shopping Bonanza May Be Losing Its Punch Retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%, according to the main industry trade group, a sign that the annual four-day shopping bonanza may be losing some of its punch. The decline, the… Continue reading Was Black Friday A Disaster? Does It Matter?