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A Historic Collapse In Energy-Related Securities
December 12, 2014
The Financial Times – Energy stocks spoil S&P year-end party The head of the worst-performing member of the S&P 500 stock index struck a humble tone last week when he stood before a conference full of sceptical investors. “I’ve been pleased with the quality of the meetings we’ve had over the course of the day.… Continue reading A Historic Collapse In Energy-Related Securities
Newsclips
Oil Breakeven Costs
December 12, 2014
The Wall Street Journal – Oil Slide Drives Central Banks to Action The steep slide in the price of oil is hammering an increasingly broad spectrum of the global financial market, particularly pummeling stocks and currencies of oil-dependent economies, and even driving central banks to action. The central banks of Russia and Norway each responded… Continue reading Oil Breakeven Costs
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Fed Voters Next Year, Very Dovish
December 12, 2014
<Click on image for larger picture> Bloomberg Brief – Introducing the ‘Fed Spectrometer’ The tone of economic data has improved significantly over the past year, confirming that the economy is making major progress in terms of normalization after the Great Recession. Economic output is well above pre-recession levels, private sector job creation is showing the… Continue reading Fed Voters Next Year, Very Dovish
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Russia’s Economic Crisis Worsens
December 12, 2014
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg – Russia’s Rate Increase Fails to Halt Ruble’s Slide to Record Russia’s fifth interest-rate increase this year failed to stem the ruble’s worst rout since 1998 as the central bank governor said a bigger move risked exposing the economy to a greater chance of recession. The Bank of… Continue reading Russia’s Economic Crisis Worsens
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Japan
December 12, 2014
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg – Japan Investors Show No Confidence in Moody’s as Yields Decline Japan’s government is less creditworthy today than last month, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The bond market doesn’t believe it. Japan’s five-year yield fell to a record low two days after Moody’s cut the nation’s debt rating… Continue reading Japan
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More On The Fed’s Dual Mandate
December 12, 2014
The Economist – The Federal Reserve: Opportunistic overheating As the Fed signals higher rates, low inflation calls for patience WHEN officials at the Federal Reserve meet next week, they will wrestle with a problem most other central banks would love to have: what to do if unemployment gets too low? The question is not hypothetical.… Continue reading More On The Fed’s Dual Mandate
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The Message From The Junk Bond Market
December 12, 2014
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Stock Traders Ignoring the Message From Junk Bond Traders Perhaps 2014 will go down in history as the year that junk bonds sent a warning signal as oil plummeted and stocks just kept rallying. Prices on high-yield bonds have declined 2.4 percent this month and 5.7 percent… Continue reading The Message From The Junk Bond Market
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Bad News Is Good News In Europe
December 12, 2014
The Wall Street Journal – Weak Demand for Loans Raises Hopes for ECB Stimulus Four-Year Loans Aimed at Spurring Credit to Private Sector Hopes for more aggressive stimulus measures by the European Central Bank increased on Thursday after demand for the second installment of a four-year lending program for banks fell short of expectations. The… Continue reading Bad News Is Good News In Europe
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Consumers De-leverage
December 12, 2014
The Wall Street Journal – Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off Despite Decline in Net Worth, Households Seem Primed for Growth U.S. families’ debt burdens have settled at their lowest level in over a decade, putting the economy on a stronger footing relative to global rivals going into 2015. With home values rising, Americans are beginning to… Continue reading Consumers De-leverage
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Greece
December 12, 2014
The Economist – Buttonwood: Frozen or Buzz? Political risk returns to haunt the Christmas season The alternative would be to do some deal that extends the Greek debt even further, “to infinity and beyond” in the catchphrase from the “Toy Story” films. In that case, the danger would be that other countries would feel Greece… Continue reading Greece
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Chinese Stocks
December 12, 2014
The Economist – China’s stockmarket: Dynastic bull There is good reason for shares to rise, but a manic market is a policy headache A strong stockmarket helps China’s economy. One of the reasons for the big rise in debt over the past five years has been firms’ near-exclusive reliance on loans and bonds for financing.… Continue reading Chinese Stocks