Bloomberg View – Mohamed El-Erian: Wow! What the Jump in U.S. Growth Means First, the jump in GDP growth signals a broadening of what had been a timid U.S. recovery. Coming on the heels of the strong second-quarter 4.6 percent bounce back and the impressive November monthly jobs gain (321,000 — another wow number), the… Continue reading More On The U.S. Economy
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – And 2014’s Worst Currency Was…Bitcoin It’s been a bad year for the Russian ruble and a terrible 12 months for the Ukrainian hryvnia. But it’s been a catastrophic 2014 for Bitcoin, the virtual currency. While acknowledging that my currency forecasting prowess means I’m driving a desk rather… Continue reading The Worst Currency Of The Year
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Earnings Forecasts Market Fundamentals vs Central Banks Market Fundamentals vs Central Banks – 2 A New Sign Of Deflation? Crude Oil Gas Prices Keep Falling Crude By Rail Update The “New” American Dream Credit In The U.S. Credit Market Debt Household Net Worth What Deleveraging? Russia… Continue reading Charts of the Week
The Big Picture – Wall Street Economists = Consistently Wrong on 10-year Rate As we leave 2014 behind, professional forecasters are once again predicting that long rates will go up next year. As the chart below shows, this has been a pattern for the past decade. The latest Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that… Continue reading Interest Rate Forecasts
Business Insider – Here’s How Much Money Americans Will Save Thanks To Cheaper Gas By now, we’ve all heard that oil prices have plummeted over the last several months, which has made things tough for major energy-producing economies like Saudi Arabia and Texas. But it’s great news for the average American consumer because lower oil… Continue reading How Much Do Falling Gas Prices Help?
The Financial Times – Caught on the wrong side of the ‘vol’ trade While the exact dynamics of the day remain unclear, market participants say that the outsized moves in the price of US Treasuries were worsened by a sudden shift in the volatility strategy of Pimco. Following Mr Gross’s abrupt departure from the bond… Continue reading The Vol Trade
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Economy Posts Strongest Growth in More Than a Decade GDP Grows at 5% Rate, Supported by Consumer Spending, Business Investment The U.S. economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade during the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment. Gross domestic product, the broadest… Continue reading Booming GDP
Business Insiders – Putin Named Russia’s ‘Man Of The Year’ For The 15th Time In A Row Vladimir Putin has been named Russia’s “Man Of The Year” for the 15th time in a row, Interfax news agency reports. The Russian president won by a landslide, claiming 68% of votes. The runner-up got only 4% of… Continue reading Man Of The Year, 15 and Counting!
The Wall Street Journal – Earnings Expectations Keep Tumbling for Energy Companies WTI crude has tumbled from above $90 a barrel at the start of the quarter to $57.31 Monday. The ensuing change in analysts’ profit expectations since Oct. 1 paints a stark picture. Then, consensus views were for energy companies in the S&P 500… Continue reading Will Q4 Earning Slip on Oil?
Reuters.com – Exclusive: ECB considers making weaker euro zone states bear more quantitative easing risk – sources European Central Bank officials are considering ways to ensure weak countries that stand to gain most from a fresh round of money printing bear more of the risk and cost. Officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, have… Continue reading More On ECB QE