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How Much Do Rates Reflect The Economy?

January 8, 2015

[pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=231″] Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Long-term UST Yields Couldn’t Care Less About Their Own Economy The yield on the 30y bond is now a less pure measure of economic performance in the US. From 2010 to 2013, US economic performance explained 60% of the movement in 30yr bond yields. This de clined to… Continue reading How Much Do Rates Reflect The Economy?

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The Euro

January 8, 2015

<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – World’s Best Forecaster Targets Euro-Dollar Parity Being more bearish on the euro than the consensus helped ING Groep NV become the world’s most accurate currency forecaster in 2014. The Dutch bank sees no reason to change its strategy now, breaking from the pack to predict a drop… Continue reading The Euro

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Newsclips

ECB QE

January 8, 2015

The Financial Times – ECB QE will not make Europe a good investment What if quantitative easing never ends? The European Central Bank is likely to announce a new asset purchase programme on January 22. Investors are excited, and eurozone government bonds are trading at record-low yields. But the markets’ euphoria is misplaced: QE is… Continue reading ECB QE

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Grexit

January 8, 2015

Bloomberg.com – Don’t Believe the Hype: Why Germany Needs Greece to Stay in Euro A reading of the German press suggests Chancellor Angela Merkel is at peace with the idea of Greece quitting the euro. Der Spiegel says her government views that as a manageable outcome; Bild reports that officials are preparing for the prospect.… Continue reading Grexit

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Newsclips

Oil’s Effect On Stocks

January 8, 2015

Bloomberg.com – Why Oil Is Dragging Down the S&P Why does falling oil, a boon to consumers, keep knocking down the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index? To Bank of America Corp., it’s because of the possibility companies will cancel plans for capital spending. Earnings in the benchmark gauge for American equities may be as much… Continue reading Oil’s Effect On Stocks

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Yields Across The Globe Continue To Fall

January 8, 2015

Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Jon Hilsenrath: COULD LOWER 10-YEAR YIELDS SPARK A MORE AGGRESSIVE FED? If falling yields are a reflection of diminishing inflation prospects, as is typically the case, it ought to prompt the Fed to hold off on raising short-term interest rates in the months ahead. If, on the other hand,… Continue reading Yields Across The Globe Continue To Fall

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Newsclips

Charlie Evans Channels His “Inner Bullard”

January 8, 2015

Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Fed’s Evans: U.S. Might Not Hit Target Inflation Rate Until 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Wednesday the U.S. might not hit the Fed’s target inflation rate until 2018 and he doesn’t advocate raising interest rates until 2016. Mr. Evans, long-known as a proponent of… Continue reading Charlie Evans Channels His “Inner Bullard”

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Robert Shiller Offers Opinion On Bonds, Shockingly … It Is Bearish!

January 8, 2015

Time.com – This Nobel Economist Spotted the Last Two Bubbles—Here’s What He Says About the Bond Boom This month, Yale economist Robert Shiller, who shared the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013, is publishing the third edition of his classic book Irrational Exuberance. Some might take this as an ominous sign. The first version came… Continue reading Robert Shiller Offers Opinion On Bonds, Shockingly … It Is Bearish!

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Newsclips

Cartoons

January 8, 2015

None Today

Charts of the Week

Charts of the Week

January 7, 2015

Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: What Message Are World Markets Telling Us? What Message Are World Markets Telling Us? – 2 What Message Are World Markets Telling Us? – 3 A Look At Earnings Season Everything You Wanted To Know About Wall Street’s S&P 500 Forecasts The Dollar Index Interest Rates… Continue reading Charts of the Week

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Newsclips

Crude Oil, The S&P 500, Home Appreciation And Why $50 Crude Changes The World

January 7, 2015

<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Why Oil Is Dragging Down the S&P Why does falling oil, a boon to consumers, keep knocking down the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index? To Bank of America Corp., it’s because of the possibility companies will cancel plans for capital spending. Earnings in the benchmark gauge for… Continue reading Crude Oil, The S&P 500, Home Appreciation And Why $50 Crude Changes The World

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Why The Timing Of Earnings Announcements Matter

January 7, 2015

CNBC – Earnings: Why announcing the announcement matters Titled “Announcing the Announcement,” the paper presented this past weekend at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Boston found that companies use this “advanced noticed period” to manipulate the attention of investors. Boulland and Dessaint used a data set that included 53,000 announcements from 2007 through… Continue reading Why The Timing Of Earnings Announcements Matter