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More Thinking The Fed Is On Hold
January 13, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Investors Shift Bets on Fed Rate Increase Gauges Indicate More Expect Delay in Increase A wave of global economic gloom has turned the U.S. money market on its head, with more investors now betting that the Federal Reserve will be forced to delay raising… Continue reading More Thinking The Fed Is On Hold
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Has The Fed Learned The Right Lessons?
January 13, 2015
The New York Times – The Depression’s Unheeded Lessons Now one of the world’s leading economic historians, Barry Eichengreen, has come forth with an alternate view: Rather than hoist anyone to our shoulders for preventing another Depression, we should be more cleareyed about the ways in which global leaders did not really learn the lessons… Continue reading Has The Fed Learned The Right Lessons?
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What Crude Needs Before It Bottoms
January 13, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – As Oil Slips Below $50, Canada Digs In for Long Haul Oil-Sands Operators, Seeing Long-Term Value, Aren’t Likely to Shut Off the Tap Any Time Soon Existing oil sands surface mines can make money at about $30 a barrel, and the most efficient underground… Continue reading What Crude Needs Before It Bottoms
Newsclips
Earnings Season Is Beginning
January 13, 2015
Zero Hedge – The Confessions Begin: Goldman, BofA Warn Crude Crash Will Have Negative Impact On GDP, Earnings Reduced energy capex will also hurt profits in other industries. In contrast, lower oil is a positive for the US consumer, but likely not enough to offset the Energy sector drag on overall market earnings. The direct… Continue reading Earnings Season Is Beginning
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Is This How The Subprime Crisis Started?
January 13, 2015
Bloomberg.com – Standard Chartered May Take Commodities Provision: Credit Suisse The bank faces an increase in risk-weighted assets of $24 billion “as the riskiness of the commodities portfolio is re-assessed,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Carla Antunes-Silva, with an underperform recommendation on shares, wrote in a note. The $4.4 billion would include $2.6 billion in… Continue reading Is This How The Subprime Crisis Started?
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China’s Booming Stock Market
January 13, 2015
<Click On Chart For Larger Image> Bloomberg – It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market As Chinese individual investors pour back into the world’s hottest stock market, they’re leaving their fingerprints all over the place. The most telltale sign: The Chinese equivalent of penny stocks, assets that have long held an allure for… Continue reading China’s Booming Stock Market
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More Volatility Ahead
January 13, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Traders Prepare for Stock Volatility Index Points to More Swings in Shares The stock market’s fear gauge is marching higher, as investors bet the big swings of recent days will become a fixture of 2015. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX,… Continue reading More Volatility Ahead
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Will Active Managers Make A Comeback?
January 13, 2015
Barron’s – Return of the Stockpickers Active managers are likely to recapture their lost glory as interest rates rise. The primary distinguishing economic trend of the past 30 years is, of course, a steady decline in interest rates, until the federal-funds rate sank to about zero — and stayed there for five years. When rates… Continue reading Will Active Managers Make A Comeback?
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The Fed Cannot Forecast, Version 3,216
January 13, 2015
MarketWatch – Zero-for-17: Fed can’t forecast jobless rate even with two-week head start Each quarter, all 17 members of the central bank — whether they have a vote or not — submit their economic forecasts for the current year, and up to three years later. On Dec. 17, these forecasts showed that their unemployment-rate forecast… Continue reading The Fed Cannot Forecast, Version 3,216
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Cartoons
January 13, 2015
Newsclips
Wages & The Jobs Report
January 12, 2015
Comment On Friday Jim was on CNBC with Rick Santelli discussing the payroll report and other market issues. To view any our recent interviews click here. Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Wage Gains Tepid in 2014 Despite Best Year of Job Creation Since 1999 Employers last year created the most jobs since 1999. They… Continue reading Wages & The Jobs Report