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Earnings Update, Not Looking Too Good
February 2, 2015
Factset – Earnings Insight for January 30, 2015 Apple Accounts for 50% of Increase in S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate for Q4 This Week Apple is now the largest contributor to earnings growth for the S&P 500 at the company level for the fourth quarter. If Apple is excluded, the blended earnings growth rate for… Continue reading Earnings Update, Not Looking Too Good
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S&P 500 Forward PE Ratio
February 2, 2015
Factset – Earnings Insight for January 30, 2015 Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 16.3, above the 10-Year Average (14.1) The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 16.3. At the sector level, the Energy (24.0) and Consumer Staples (19.4) sectors have the highest forward 12-month P/E ratios, while the Financials (12.8) and Telecom Services (13.3) sectors… Continue reading S&P 500 Forward PE Ratio
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Rig Count Declines, Does It Have A Long Way To Go?
February 2, 2015
Bloomberg.com – U.S. Oil Rig Count Declines for Eighth Consecutive Week U.S. oil drillers pulled 94 rigs out of fields in a single week, the biggest retreat to date, as crude prices capped the longest stretch of monthly declines since 2009. The oil rig count dropped to 1,223, the lowest in three years, Baker Hughes… Continue reading Rig Count Declines, Does It Have A Long Way To Go?
Newsclips
Is Energy/Crude Oil A Busted Bubble?
February 2, 2015
Comment Back on July 15 Janet Yellen first offered her opinion about potential bubbles in markets. She identified social media and biotech as having “stretched valuations.” Then in September the Fed announced a “Financial Stability Committee” headed by Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. As we commented at the time: It’s nice that the Fed formed a… Continue reading Is Energy/Crude Oil A Busted Bubble?
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Rising Rates And Stocks
February 2, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Jason Zweig: Fed Up: Do Rising Rates Matter to Stocks? Don’t worry about the Fed; be happy. That is the message from analysts and market strategists. The Federal Reserve signaled this past week that it is unlikely to raise short-term interest rates until at least June. And that rise, when… Continue reading Rising Rates And Stocks
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Germany Reaps The Benefits Of QE
February 2, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Germany Stands to Be Big Winner of Much-Opposed ECB Stimulus Germany, the biggest opponent of the European Central Bank’s new stimulus program, is poised to reap immediate benefits from the effort—an irony that underscores the complexities of designing one monetary policy for the 19-member currency area. The ECB’s program, unveiled… Continue reading Germany Reaps The Benefits Of QE
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Fed Presidents Speak
February 2, 2015
Bloomberg.com – Bullard Warns of Asset Bubble Risk If Fed Keeps Rates Too Low U.S. central bankers risk inflating another asset-price bubble if they keep interest rates too low as unemployment falls, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard said the “die is already cast” for the jobless rate to drop below the Federal… Continue reading Fed Presidents Speak
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Greece
February 2, 2015
The Financial Times – Grexit is an avoidable catastrophe for the eurozone Those who play down risks are good at counting but not at grasping the dynamics of a default The past week reminded us of three truths. The first is that the eurozone crisis will not be over until it is resolved, that is,… Continue reading Greece
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How Good Is This Recovery?
February 2, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Economy Hits Speed Bumps Strength in Consumer Spending Is Challenged by Weakness Abroad, Wary Businesses Many economists, while confident the U.S. will see growth of about 3% this year, expect the current quarter to stick to a similar pace as the last one as companies draw down inventories. But… Continue reading How Good Is This Recovery?
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The Strong Dollar Is Bad News For The U.S. Recovery
February 2, 2015
The Financial Times – The perils of a strong US dollar The bad news is the US recovery is based on the familiar model of rising consumption First things first. We are not about to replay the 1930s. The world’s big economies are not deliberately indulging in “beggar thy neighbour” devaluations and protectionism is not… Continue reading The Strong Dollar Is Bad News For The U.S. Recovery
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Bonds Win, Stocks Lose This Month
February 2, 2015
Barron’s – Bonds Win, Stocks Lose in a Split Month Arguably more relevant is the deflationary tide that equities were fighting in the past month, which sent bond yields to record lows and, in some cases, below zero around the globe. By JPMorgan economists’ reckoning, some $3.6 trillion of government bonds traded at negative yields… Continue reading Bonds Win, Stocks Lose This Month