The Wall Street Journal – Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics The core gauge of Japanese consumer prices was flat from a year earlier in February, deepening worries Japan is heading back toward deflation two years after its central bank launched a radical economic-revival program. The government said Friday the core consumer-price index hit… Continue reading Abenomics Has Not Quelled Deflationary Fears
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Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Payroll Growth Outpacing Productivity Below we offer a regression estimating GDP using non-farm payrolls (NFP) since 1948. The two series are obviously correlated… But what is most interesting is the model’s longest running negative error (since early 2011) with NFPs overestimating GDP by roughly 1%. Based on this historical relationship, GDP… Continue reading More On Payroll Growth
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.2 percent on March 25, down from 0.3 percent on March 17. Following this morning’s advance report on durable goods manufacturing from… Continue reading Several Economists Lower Their Q1 2015 GDP Forecasts
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market While Yemen contributes less than 0.2 percent of global oil output, its location puts it near the center of world energy trade. The nation shares a border with Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, and… Continue reading Why The Crisis In Yemen Caused A Spike In Crude Oil
Bloomberg.com – U.S. Home Prices Are Surging 13 Times Faster Than Wages For most people, buying a home is no cheap venture. That’s especially the case when the growth in U.S. home prices is beating wage increases 13 to 1. Wages climbed by 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2012 to the second quarter… Continue reading Another Bubble In Housing?
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Extreme Dollar Gains Turn Into S&P 500 Hurdle: Chart of the Day The dollar’s ascent has become steep enough to create an obstacle for the bull market in stocks, according to Carmine Grigoli, chief investment strategist at Mizuho Financial Group Inc.’s U.S. securities unit. The CHART OF… Continue reading The Strong Dollar And Stocks
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics – Greg Ip: The Inflation Cycle May Have Turned Central banks around the world have been alarmed at how inflation has plummeted in the last year, in many cases into negative territory. Though much of that is due to oil prices, core inflation, which excludes energy… Continue reading More On Inflation
The Wall Street Journal – Investors Scoop Up Companies’ Bonds Investment-grade and junk-rated companies combined have sold $438 billion of new bonds this year through Tuesday, according to data provider Dealogic. That tops the $384 billion of deals at this time in 2013, which previously had the most bond sales for the period. Bond sales… Continue reading Corporate Bond Issuance Off To Its Fastest Start Ever
Bloomberg Business – The Fed Still Needs to Figure Out How to Raise Rates Through reverse repos, the Fed aims to set a floor for short-term rates by temporarily pulling cash from the system with a wider array of counterparties that includes money-market mutual funds, its 22 primary dealers and government-sponsored agencies. Daily cash is… Continue reading The Fed’s Problem: How To Raise Rates
Real Time Economics – Fed’s Bullard: Risks of Keeping U.S. Policy Rates at Zero Too Long ‘May be Substantial’ Current low levels of U.S. inflation are likely temporary and the risks of keeping U.S. policy rates at zero for too long “may be substantial,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, said Thursday,… Continue reading Bullard Speaks
Real Time Economics – Greek Central Bank Governor Stournaras Says Grexit Isn’t An Option Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said Wednesday that ditching the euro and exiting the single currency union is “not an option” for Greece. Mr. Stournaras told an audience at the London School of Economics that a Greek exit–dubbed “Grexit” in… Continue reading Greece