<Click on chart for larger image> We also tried to explain the payroll measurement problems explained below. We belief they are another factor in explaining the poor productivity data. Comment How do we explain the drop in productivity shown below? <Click on chart for larger image> See the bottom panel above. The quarter-over-quarter productivity data… Continue reading Payroll Measurement Problem Updated
Reuters.com – Rate hike not appropriate until early 2016: Fed’s Evans A hike in U.S. interest rates is not likely to be appropriate until early 2016, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Wednesday. Evans, who has long argued for a delay to rate hikes so as not to undermine economic recovery, said that… Continue reading Fed President Charlie Evans Speaks
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Investors Are Cooling on U.S. Equities — BAML Survey Are cracks about to appear in the U.S. bull market? Investor appetite for U.S. stocks has slumped to its lowest level in more than seven years. Though the S&P 500 has hit three new highs in May, the region has suffered its… Continue reading Investors Sour On U.S. Equities
Bloomberg Business – Hedge Fund Diners Get ECB’s Market-Moving News Hours Early On Monday evening, Benoit Coeure told a room of bankers and hedge-fund managers in London that the European Central Bank will front load its asset-buying program before a summer lull. The next day, the rest of the market found out, irking investors from… Continue reading Another Example Of A Central Bank Leak
The Financial Times – Wall St eyes revival of crisis derivative Investors have piled into bonds in recent years, against the backdrop of aggressive central bank policies that have driven interest rates sharply lower. The rush for bonds has sparked unease among regulators amid concerns that once US interest rates start rising, investors will dump… Continue reading The Return Of CDS
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Look How the ECB’s Winning the QE Argument The European Central Bank’s policymakers certainly know how to make investors happy. The latest jawboning about keeping their foot on the monetary pedal Tuesday sent bonds and equities soaring and took a bit of the recent steam out of the euro. And, for… Continue reading More On The ECB’s Decision To Increase Bond Purchases
Bloomberg Business – The ECB’s in a Tight Spot Over Greece European Central Bank policy makers will discuss Greek bank aid on Wednesday in a chore that is getting more uncomfortable every week. The Governing Council will meet in Frankfurt to debate whether to tighten rules on Greek access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance as the… Continue reading More On Greece
MarketWatch.com – Ex-Fed official: Hike rates now or risk a tantrum The “taper tantrum” in the bond market occurred in the summer of 2013 when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke switched gears and hinted for the first time of the eventual end of the third round of bond purchases, commonly known as QE3. After the comments,… Continue reading Ex-Fed Official Warns Of The Possibility Of Another Tantrum
The Financial Times – Investors on ‘safe asset’ starvation diet What happens when shortage shrinks: indigestion or big sell-off? There is a great famine. Hungry beasts roam seeking sustenance. Competition for dwindling supplies is intense. Prices spiral upward as consumers fight to stay alive. No, not a new video game: the reality of financial markets… Continue reading More On The Lack Of Liquidity
Bloomberg.com – The $10 Hedge Fund Supercomputer That’s Sweeping Wall Street The rise of cloud computing is making much of this cheaper and faster. It’s also helping spawn a new AI industry. In all, 16 AI companies got initial backing from venture capitalists in 2014, up from two in 2010, according to data compiled by… Continue reading AI Is Taking Over Wall Street
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Real Time Economics – HILSENRATH’S TAKE: THE PHRASE OF THE DAY IS “RESIDUAL SEASONALITY” It is a live issue now because the Commerce Department has reported the economy grew at a meager rate of 0.2% in the first quarter. Was this normal seasonal variation or a lasting slowdown? Economists were asking similar questions in 2014… Continue reading Today’s Buzz Phrase: Residual Seasonality